Ron Wood
Show Bio
It’s a huge weekend for horse racing in America, with the Breeders’ Cup meeting at Keeneland race track. It’s the most prestigious event in the sport and will see elite equine talent from across the globe competing for some huge prizes.
It’s Future Stars Friday at Keeneland on Friday to get the meeting started, with the world’s top juveniles taking part. Here are our expert’s best bets for the action, and don’t forget you can read our horse racing picks every day at Pickswise!
3:00 pm ET Keeneland (Race 6, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint best bet) – Love Reigns 4/1 (2-star play)
The field size has been reduced by 2 since the 2020 running at this track. They will all probably have Tyler’s Tribe to catch, perhaps with Speed Boat Beach and The Platinum Queen leading the pursuit. The first two look like dirt horses, and gate 12 of 12 is not ideal for British contender The Platinum Queen, even acknowledging that Golden Pal made all in this from 13 of 14 2 years ago. There are some good horses who’ll be looking to pick off the leaders, with LOVE REIGNS the pick.
She’s already a course and distance winner and looks to have had the ideal prep for this, especially as she has landed gate 2. In winning a 9-runner 5.5-furlong Saratoga stakes race on her latest start, she broke quickly from the same post position but was content to stalk the speed before running on well for a comfortable win in a fast time. She should be placed on the heels on the main pace and can get a jump on the deeper closers, looking to hold strong claims for a jockey and trainer team who have won the last 3 runnings of this. Dramatised, Mischief Magic and Oxymore are feared most.
3:40 pm ET Keeneland (Race 7, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies best bet) – Chop Chop 4/1 (2-star play)
Chocolate Gelato comes in after a win in the Grade 1 Frizette, but that was a one-turn mile on the slop and she’s not sure to be fully effective over this two-turn test. The key form race looks to be the course-and-distance Grade 1 Alcibiades. Wonder Wheel won that race from the front but had just a nose to spare over CHOP CHOP, who ran on well after a slow start.
The winner had set good fractions, so Chop Chop was closing on a slowing pace late on, but it was a good first run on dirt from Brad Cox’s filly, and she was fine away from the gates on her first 2 starts, so she should be able to find a useful enough position and build on that run. Her trainer won this in 2017 with British Idiom, who won the Alcibiades. And don’t be put off by Chop Chop having started out on grass. It was the same with Cox’s Monomoy Girl, who went on to win 7 Grade 1s including the Kentucky Oaks and 2 Breeders’ Cup Distaffs.
4:20 pm ET Keeneland (Race 8, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf best bet) – G Laurie 12/1 (1-star play)
Meditate is a strong contender. Although Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien is 0-15 in this race, he has had the runner-up 3 times, including both previous runnings at Keeneland. He also had a winner and second in the 2 Juvenile Turfs for male runners at this venue. Meditate sets the standard on her European form and might have a better blend of speed and stamina than some of the trainer’s previous runners in the race. Still, she doesn’t look like being a value play, whereas G LAURIE appeals at bigger odds.
It’s hard to get a handle on how good she is, but her debut win was a nice start and she then got no sort of run when behind 2 of these rivals in a slowly run one-turn 1-mile Grade 1. She’ll be suited by the return to 2 turns, and she now gets blinkers. Her first-season sire Oscar Performance won the 2016 Juvenile Turf and her trainer had the winner of this with a 16/1 chance in 2019.
5:00 pm ET Keeneland (Race 9, FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile best bet) – Blazing Sevens 6/1 (2-star play)
Cave Rock has shown himself to be fast, yet also a relentless galloper and connections may not even have got to the bottom of him yet, as he hasn’t looked the finished article and it has seemed like he’s only really getting rolling towards the end of his races – it’s like he could run all day. But he must have had some hard races in posting big speed figures, the latest just 4 weeks ago, and in BLAZING SEVENS he faces a serious-looking rival who might have had the shrewder preparation for this.
It’s hard to know for sure how good this horse is, with his two Grade 1 starts having come on sloppy tracks, but Chad Brown ran him in the Champagne at Aqueduct, rather than in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, so he could have an extra week’s rest ahead of this race, his main target. The trainer is adamant he’ll be better suited to two turns, which he gets for the first time. His sire, Good Magic, from the same barn, progressed from a 2nd in the Champagne to win this in 2017, defeating an odds-on shot who had won the same Grade 1s as Cave Rock (different trainer). National Treasure, who has the same trainer as Cave Rock and ran 2nd to him last time, shouldn’t be discounted.
5:40 pm ET Keeneland (Race 10, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf best bet) – Silver Knott 3/1 (3-star play)
It looks like a few horses will be trying to hold their positions while Gaslight Dancer will probably be crossing over from the widest gate to race on or near the lead. He could go well if getting loose up front, this step up in trip perhaps being the key to him. However, there’s no opposing SILVER KNOTT, even with the worries about possible trouble in running. The American challenge is not strong and Silver Knott, with smart form in Europe, sets a good standard.
He has been racing off the pace lately, but won his novice from the front over 7 furlongs, so has the speed to give himself a good chance of standing his ground. The pick of the US runners may be I’m Very Busy. He looked the best horse in the Pilgrim at Aqueduct, even though he was beaten into 2nd by Major Dude, and the last 3 home-trained winners of this contest (2016, 2019, 2020) had all won that race.
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