Ron Wood
Show Bio
It’s a huge weekend for horse racing in America, with the Breeders’ Cup meeting at Keeneland race track. It’s the most prestigious event in the sport and will see elite equine talent from across the globe competing for some huge prizes.
The Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Turf, Sprint and Distaff are the main races before the big one — the $6 million Breeders Cup Classic. Here are our expert’s best bets for the action, and don’t forget you can read our horse racing picks every day at Pickswise!
11:50 am ET Keeneland (Race 3, Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint best bet) – Obligatory 8/1 (2-star play)
12:29 pm ET Keeneland (Race 4, Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint best bet) – Naval Crown 30/1 (1-star play)
Golden Pal has won at the last 2 Breeders’ Cups, has a 4-4 record over course and distance and is unbeaten in 8 starts overall on turf in the US. What’s not to like? Well, this is the best field he’s faced on home turf and there’s a slight concern that he has made a couple of not-so-good starts this year – his game is usually all about speed from the gates, able to take lengths out of the field in the opening strides when at his sharpest.
In any case, NAVAL CROWN is more tempting from a value point of view. He needs to bounce back to form and has never raced over a distance quite this short. But he’s a big, strong, exuberant type who did well in 6-furlong Group 1 races in Britain earlier this year and there might be even more to come from him now. There were excuses for his latest run and he shapes like being ideally suited to this test, a likely strongly-run race around a bend. He’s twice won turning left-handed over further at Meydan and he should be able to hold his own in what will be a busy race. Highfield Princess comes in after 3 straight Group 1 wins in Europe, so must go well if in the same form.
1:10 pm ET Keeneland (Race 5, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile best bet) – Simplification 15/1 (1-star play)
There’s a short run to the first of 2 turns in this race. Laurel River has a lovely profile, except his speed figures do not stand out. Instead, it’s worth getting with SIMPLIFICATION at double-digit odds. He has much bigger odds than Cyberknife, but anyone looking at the Penn Derby at Parx last time, as well as their respective post positions now, would struggle to understand such a discrepancy.
Yes, Cyberknife has the better overall body of work and goes for a higher-profile barn that has been prolific at this meeting in recent years. But Simplification ran the better race in the Penn Derby (won by Classic contender Taiba), pressing a good pace and only fading out of it in the stretch, losing 3rd by just a head to Cyberknife, who was never in the heat of the battle. The time of that race was good, close to what will be needed in this race unless one of these improves.
1:50 pm ET Keeneland (Race 6, Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf best bet) – Toy 20/1 (1-star play)
This race starts on the crown of the home bend, with the low-drawn runners almost staring at the inside rail. It’ll be the third running of the race at Keeneland. In 2015, the runner in post 2 stumbled badly at the start, although still managed 2nd, and in 2020 the horse drawn 1 stumbled and unseated her rider coming out of the gates. The first 3 in 2015 were drawn 9-2-5 and in 2020 and they came from 11-6-9. A few of these will be looking to race handily, and in particular the runners in 1, 2 and 3 will probably be sent forward early in a bid to avoid crowding. It could all get a bit tight.
In Italian impressed with a front-running win in a 1-mile Grade 1 at Keeneland in preparation for this, keeping on as though she could do even better over this trip, but it looks like she’ll have to work harder than ideal to make the lead, albeit stall 11 keeps her wide of any early jostling. Nashwa could get a forward, ground-saving trip, but she’s surprisingly short in the early betting. There doesn’t look any value in Above The Curve either, and Aidan O’Brien’s Tuesday and TOY appeal most, with a chance taken on the last-named. Toy hasn’t had a fair crack at a good race over this sort of trip on a sound surface (drawn 16 in French Oaks when winner Nashwa was in 2) but is potentially going to be well suited by this test and if Wayne Lordan, who hugged the rail aboard 2019 winner Iridessa at Santa Anita, albeit from post 1, can save some ground, this filly may come home best.
2:30 pm ET Keeneland (Race 7, Breeders’ Cup Sprint best bet) – Jackie’s Warrior 4/5 (3-star play)
It seems JACKIE’S WARRIOR will be sent off favourite at the Breeders’ Cup for a 3rd straight year. He didn’t win either of the first 2 attempts, finding 8.5-furlong too far in the 2020 Juvenile at Keeneland, and emerging from last year’s Sprint with an injury, but all being well this should be his day.
He’s the best horse in the race and even a defeat on his most recent outing still represents high-class form, a level that would probably be good enough for this. Super Ocho may give him some competition for the early lead but Jackie’s Warrior can sit off him if he needs to, and the others will be relying on them coming back.
3:10 pm ET Keeneland (Race 8, FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile best bet) – Annapolis 10/1 (2-star play)
The Mile looks an open race and Regal Glory and ANNAPOLIS may be underestimated in the early markets, with Pogo and Order Of Australia also offering potential value. They each have the speed to get good, stalking positions (although Order Of Australia missed the break last time).
There are 2 confirmed frontrunners — Smooth Like Strait and Beyond Brilliant — and the second wave just behind them might prove the place to be, allowing for a head start on the deeper closers. Annapolis, an improver who won a course-and-distance Grade 1 on his latest start, is the pick.
3:50 pm ET Keeneland (Race 9, Breeders’ Cup Distaff best bet) – Clairiere 4/1 (2-star play)
This should be a great race. Nest has speed, stamina and a high-class level of form so it’s not easy to beat her. But the early markets were underestimating CLAIRIERE. She has to bounce back from a poor run at Saratoga in August, but she lost that in the starting gates and has since been schooled extensively on that part of her game.
She’d earlier won a 9-furlong Grade 2 at that same venue, accounting for Malathaat, despite a 4-runner race not being ideal for Clairiere’s off-the-pace style and being hampered on the turn in.
4:40 pm ET Keeneland (Race 10, Breeders’ Cup Turf best bet) – War Like Goddess 9/2 (2-star play)
Nations Pride has raced well in the United States this year but more is needed from him the UK-based horse now that he’s taking on older rivals for the first time. He may progress, but WAR LIKE GODDESS is much preferred. She’s a high-class mare who readily accounted for male rivals last time and is 2-2 over this course and distance.
Stone Age has had some excuses and wasn’t far behind Nations Pride twice in the summer, but single-figure odds don’t appeal for taking a chance on him. Mishriff should be right there if having a good day in his new headgear and he does look like being a big enough price to consider.
5:40 pm ET Keeneland (Race 11, Breeders’ Cup Classic best bet) – Flightline 3/5 (3-star play)
The competition is stronger than when FLIGHTLINE demolished 5 rivals in the 10-furlong Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar in September. That was a good race — runner-up Country Grammer earlier won this year’s Dubai World Cup – but this is even better, with Taiba (same connections as Country Grammer) and Epicenter a couple of top-class, improving 3-year-olds.
Whereas Flightline saw off the relatively modest Extra Hope for the lead down the back stretch at Del Mar, his likely early target this time, Life Is Good, usually comes out of the gates like a shot and has sprint speed that he can carry around 2 turns.
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