Matt Marquart
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The wait is almost over and the start of the 2022-23 college basketball season is nearly upon us. It always proves to be one of the craziest, most unpredictable sports in the world, and this season should prove no different. There’s still time to make a couple of futures bets on who will be cutting down the nets at the end of March Madness. Let’s break down the main contenders for the NCAA Tournament and my picks to win it all, including a longshot at 70/1!
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
2022-23 College Basketball NCAA Tournament contenders
At +850, Gonzaga and Houston are the co-favorites to cut down the nets and are the only teams with less than 10/1 odds to win the National Championship. Both teams made the Final Four in 2021, so they are no strangers to success in March. Both are inside the top seven of KenPom and BartTorvik’s preseason rankings and are second (Gonzaga) and third (Houston) in the preseason AP Poll.
The only team ahead of Gonzaga and Houston in the AP Poll is North Carolina, which is third in line in the futures market. Last season’s runners-up sit at +1000 and are followed by a large group of teams at 20/1 or less. For the purposes of this article, I consider the true title contenders to be any team that is 20/1 or better to win it all.
Kentucky and Baylor have +1200 odds, followed by Duke (+1300) and the defending champs Kansas at +1500. Kentucky returns National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe, while Kansas and Duke will feature a lot of new players this season, as the two teams combined to have six first-round picks in the last NBA draft. Arizona, Arkansas, UCLA and Texas round out the primary contenders, each at +2000 to win the title.
2023 NCAA Tournament winner best bet: Baylor Bears (+1200)
I am going with Baylor at +1200 for my pick to win the National Championship. From a value standpoint, Baylor’s odds stand out to me because they are priced with the 4th-lowest odds, despite ranking second in BartTorvik’s preseason rankings. In my power ratings, not much separates Baylor from Gonzaga, Houston and North Carolina, so I will happily take them at a slightly better number. I will point out this number has dropped significantly in the offseason and there are a few books that still have a better number than +1200, but I believe this is still a good bet.
From an on-court standpoint, the main reason that the Bears are my choice is because of their guards, which make up arguably the best backcourt in the country. Adam Flagler is back after an excellent Junior season, but some might forget how good LJ Cryer was before his injury last season. Cryer averaged 13.5 points per game and, like Flagler, he is lethal from beyond the arc.
They’ll be joined by top-ten recruit Keyonte George, giving Scott Drew at least three great guards to work with. I say at least because the Bears should also get Langston Love back from missing the entire season last year. Love was a highly regarded recruit, so it’s likely he fits into the rotation as well. In my opinion, this team is built similarly to the one that won the 2021 National Championship, led by that fantastic group of guards in Butler, Mitchell, and Teague (Flagler as well).
In a year in which big men dominate the majority of the spots on the preseason All-American teams, trust Baylor’s guards when making a bet on the Bears at +1200 to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
2023 NCAA Tournament winner best longshot bet: San Diego State (+7000)
For this article, I considered a longshot to be any team with 40/1 odds or higher. Among those, I am selecting San Diego State at +7000 as a recommended bet. Perhaps this price is this high because they are San Diego State, a team from a non-power conference that has never advanced past the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament, but the Aztecs are poised to have a great season.
The strength of the team is on the defensive end, where San Diego State ranked 2nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The problem was on the other end of the court, where the Aztecs ranked just 167th in offensive efficiency. However, I believe there is potential for that to improve significantly. Matt Bradley will once again be the focal point of the offense, but he shouldn’t need to rank top-60 in usage rate this season. Seattle-transfer Darrion Trammel should be able to take some of the offensive pressure off of Bradley, as Trammel averaged 17.3 points per game last season.
The Aztecs ranks inside the top 20 of both KenPom and BartTorvik’s preseason rankings, making a bet on San Diego State at 70/1 a no-brainer.
Three of our NCAAB experts gave their picks for this season’s NCAA Tournament — check them out!
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