Ricky Dimon
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We are into the medal rounds of the singles competition in men’s tennis at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Unsurprisingly, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic is there. Alexander Zverev’s presence is also no surprise. Thursday’s other semifinal, however, is an unexpected one between Pablo Carreno Busta and Karen Khachanov.
Who will end up going for gold? Let’s take a look at our best bets on Day 7 in Tokyo.
Alexander Zverev +4.5 games over Novak Djokovic (+105)
To be abundantly clear, there is nothing fun about betting against Novak Djokovic. Alas, there are only two singles matches on Friday’s schedule and therefore not a lot to work with. That being said, this is by no means a bad bet. And it’s not exactly like we are betting against Djokovic. The world No. 1 is undoubtedly going to win this semifinal showdown with Zverev, but asking him to cover 4.5 games with the world No. 5 on the other side of the net is a lot — even for Djokovic.
Zverev has defeated the top-seeded Serb twice before, and even though he has lost six times many of those results have been competitive. In each of their two meetings so far this season, Zverev has taken a set (a three-setter at the ATP Cup before Djokovic won in a fourth-set tiebreaker at the Australian Open). Conditions in Tokyo are fast and high-bouncing, which suit Zverev’s game to perfection. Djokovic has not yet endured any tough matches at this tournament, but his draw has been easy. That changes on Friday.
Pablo Carreno Busta -1 game over Karen Khachanov (-113)
Carreno Busta vs. Khachanov in the semi-finals of the Olympics?!?! In Carreno Busta’s case, it really isn’t that surprising. The Spaniard is often perceived to be a clay-court force simply because of his nationality, but he is actually at his best on hard courts. He is a two-time U.S. Open semi-finalist and now he finds himself at the same stage in Tokyo. PCB is coming off a brilliant quarter-final win over world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev on Thursday.
Khachanov did well to reach the Wimbledon quarter-finals, but his 2021 campaign had been otherwise underwhelming prior to the Olympics. The Russian was especially underwhelming on hard courts earlier in the year. It should also be noted that Carreno Busta leads the head-to-head series 3-2 after dominating 6-2, 6-3 this spring in Monte-Carlo. That was on clay, but as mentioned above clay doesn’t really favor him. It would have been nice to see PCB as the underdog in this one to add more value, but books and bettors are clearly starting to smarten up when it comes to this guy’s talent. Even as a slight favorite, he is still a good play.
Pickswise is the home of expert ATP Tennis and WTA Tennis Predictions. Our tennis handicappers provide expert insight along with the best tennis bets throughout the big tournaments on the tour, including the Grand Slam events and the Olympics.
