Andrew Ortenberg
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Olympic baseball is back for the first time since 2008. The action is underway in Tokyo, and the games so far have been thrilling. We have only one game coming up, Dominican Republic/Israel in an elimination matchup. I’ve been hot with these bets recently. I’ve cashed three of my last four Olympic baseball best bets: First the over in the USA/Israel game a few days ago, then USA -1.5 over South Korea, and then Japan on the money line early this morning. The only game I lost in that span was Dominican Republic as a +195 underdog, and they blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning.
In any case, let’s make it four out of five!
You can view all of our Olympics picks here, but right now we’re talking baseball. Let’s dive in.
Olympic baseball Day 7 best bet: Dominican Republic vs Israel under 9.5 (-120)
The under here jumped out to me for a few reasons. For starters, Dominican Republic’s lineup has struggled all tournament. Through three games, they’ve produced only seven total runs, and they’re yet to top three in any game. If they don’t score more than three here, I don’t see any way this over hits.
Dominican Republic’s pitching on the other hand has been pretty great. Despite tough matchups against Japan and South Korea, they’ve only given up eight total runs through three games. They shutout Mexico. Christopher Mercedes will start for them here, and that’s great news for the under.
He already started earlier in this tournament against Japan, and that experience is huge. We know he won’t fold under the bright lights of Olympic baseball. He pitched just about as well as anyone could’ve hoped in that Japan game, giving up only three hits and one run in six innings.
That’s against a Japan team that is the heavy favorite to win it all. Mercedes shouldn’t have too much trouble against an Israel offense that just put up only one run in their most recent game. The Israelis had one great game against Mexico, but right before that, they had scored only a single run again against Team USA.
You’ve got to factor in that this is an elimination game. With the super high stakes of a win-or-go-home Olympic baseball game, I’m expecting the lineups for both sides to get a bit tight. This should be a low-scoring affair.
