Andrew Ortenberg
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Can you feel it in the air? We reached a critical point in the sports betting calendar recently, when the first NFL win totals for the 2019 season were revealed. We’re one step closer to having football back, and you can now start making future investments. Of all the divisions in the NFL, the AFC North might have the most fascinating storylines in 2019. Do you agree with Pickswise Win Total Predictions for AFC North Division?
Cleveland Browns – 9
The Browns have gotten more buzz than any other team this season, and rightfully so. After finishing 2018 red hot, they’ve since acquired Odell Beckham Jr. and Olivier Vernon, among others. They were already fun to watch with Baker Mayfield, and they could be genuinely electrifying in 2019. But winning more than nine games is still a tall task, and the hype seems to have gotten a bit out of control.
Public bettors will be flocking to bet the over on the Browns, which is usually a pretty good sign that there’s value on the under. The Browns were playing expectation-free football toward the end of last season, and they won’t have that luxury this time around. There will be a ton of pressure on Cleveland in 2019, and no one in that building has much experience handling it. The under is the smart play here. The Pick: Under
Pittsburgh Steelers – 9
Finally, I’m taking an over here. The Steelers had a rough 2018, but they still have a ton of talent even without Antonio Brown or Le’Veon Bell, and I think they’re due for a bounce back year. Some of the heat is finally off them, and I think they’ll play a lot better now that they aren’t the only ones under a microscope in the division. The Browns taking some of the spotlight away will be a good thing for the Steelers in 2019.
The media and public consensus has been that the Steelers are done for and no longer the top dogs in the division, which is usually a good indication of what not to believe. It’s a good time to fade the consensus, and get good value on the Steelers when they’re being slept on for the first time in a while. Finally free from all the drama, I think we finally see the Steelers play up to the level of their talent instead of below it. The Steelers will be back with double digit wins next season. The Pick: Over
Baltimore Ravens – 8.5
The Ravens were a nice story in 2018, but I think they’ll prove to be a one-year wonder. They dialed the clocks back with a run-heavy offense that worked for a long time, but it’ll run its course just like all gimmick offenses do. We saw in the playoffs last year what happens when a team gets to see their offense a second time. The first time the Ravens played the Chargers, they bullied them around and ran all over them.
When they played the Chargers in the playoffs a couple of weeks later, Los Angeles had made the necessary adjustments and completely shut them down. The Ravens lost some key contributors on defense, and still don’t have enough pass-catching weapons for Lamar Jackson to grow too much as a passer, even if he’s capable of doing so. I think the Ravens take a step back in 2019. The Pick: Under
Cincinnati Bengals – 6
I also like the under on the Bengals. Cincinnati completely collapsed last season, and ended up firing longtime coach Marvin Lewis. To replace Lewis, they ended up going with Zac Taylor, the 35-year-old Rams quarterback coach. Cincinnati is clearly trying to replicate what the Rams did with Sean McVay, but unlike McVay, Taylor had never even called plays at the NFL level before being hired. Taylor has no real qualifications for the job, other than that he used to coach at nearby Cincinnati University.
Taylor could prove to be a good coach, but he’s not going to do much winning in year one as the Bengals enter a rebuild. The team won’t be focused on winning games this season, and they still could even decide to move on from Andy Dalton if they draft a passer early. The Bengals aren’t outright tanking, but they also didn’t really make any moves to get better and won’t be planning on competing for the playoffs. I don’t see how they could win seven or more games. The Pick: Under
