San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 09/26/24

The Los Angeles Dodgers will wrap up their 3-game series with the San Diego Padres tonight, and a win for the Dodgers would mark their 11th NL West division title in the last 12 seasons. Los Angeles has dominated the division for well over a decade, but the Padres have been one of the hottest teams in baseball as we inch closer to the postseason. San Diego is 14-5 in the month of September and already played their way into the postseason, and the division title is still attainable, but not likely with Los Angeles finishing their season with 3 games in Colorado. While I’d like to pick a side in tonight’s matchup, I see much more value on the game total. So let’s break down why.

First things first, the Dodgers and Padres have been 2 of the best lineups in baseball all season long. Both of these teams rank in the top 5 in wRC+ on the season and have actually outperformed their season marks in the month of September. The starting pitching matchup of Joe Musgrove and Walker Buehler might have been a pitcher’s duel in 2022, but in 2024 these right-handers have not performed to standards their normally held to. Musgrove owns a 3.95 ERA across 18 starts, and to his defense he’s pitched extremely well since the start of August, but his underlying metrics are still concerning. Musgrove has regressed in xERA, xBA, hard-hit rate, and most notably in chase rate and barrel rate. In 2023, Musgrove ranked in the 99th percentile in chase rate and now ranks in the 31st percentile, while his 5.1%-barrel rate in 2023 in now at 10.5%.

In the case of Walker Buehler, it’s apparent that he has not returned to form since undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. Buehler’s 5.63 ERA across 15 starts is his worst mark since his rookie season and he’s regressed in numerous areas. Buehler ranks in the 21st percentile or lower in strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, xBA, and xERA, categories that were all above league-average in 2021. While Buehler may have shown some signs of life after recording 9 strikeouts against the Rockies, he also gave up 4 runs – and again it’s the Rockies so take that with a grain of salt. With a pair of the best lineups in baseball up against a pair of starters who have not been on par this season, I’ll back the over at its current number.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions: Over 8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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