Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 04/21/25

A showdown in the NL East between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets highlights the MLB slate on Monday. This pitching matchup is one that immediately points me in the direction of the under, especially given the weather that we’ll see in Queens on Monday (54 degrees at first pitch, with 9 mile per hour winds). The market has been eager to fade Aaron Nola to this point in the season, and while I did agree with that inclination at the start of the season, Nola’s underlying metrics (4.01 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 25% strikeout rate) now suggest that he’s become a bit undervalued in the market compared to where he’s actually at as a pitcher. Therefore, even though the Mets have seen Nola a ton this season, the right-hander should put forth an effective 5 or 6 inning outing in a ballpark that should be conducive to lower scoring on Monday.

On the other side, Tylor Megill has gotten off to a strong start in April, posting an ERA of 1.40 (xERA of 3.49), 3.40 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 23.3%. He should see plenty of success against a Phillies lineup that he’s pitched well against in recent seasons, particularly the top of the order. Once Megill exits the game, the Mets newly revamped bullpen is one of the top units in baseball, and we’ve already seen the Phillies lineup struggle in the late innings against high-level bullpens (Dodgers, Braves) earlier this month. All things considered, I’ll take the under at the current number on Monday.

Phillies vs Mets prediction: Under 8 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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