Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/19/24

The New York Mets hold a 2-game lead over the Atlanta Braves for the 3rd and final spot in the NL Wild Card race but closing out the remainder of the season will be no easy task. The Mets open up a 4-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies tonight before hitting the road for a pair of 3-game sets in Atlanta and Milwaukee. New York dropped 2 out of 3 to Philadelphia last weekend at Citizens Bank Park and tonight’s pitching matchup will line up similarly to their game on September 14 in which the Phillies erased a 4-run deficit, going on to win 6-4. Luis Severino will take the ball for the Mets tonight as he did in that Saturday ballgame, while Taijuan Walker will make his first start for the Phillies since August 28. Walker appeared for 3.0 innings of relief last Saturday after Phillies’ starter Kolby Allard lasted just 3.0 innings.

I was high on the Mets last Saturday, and despite them blowing an early 4-0 lead, I’m backing them here again tonight. Severino retired the first 8 Phillies’ batters last week, and aside from a pair of homeruns from Bryce Harper, Severino really didn’t experience much traffic on the basepaths. He allowed just 3 hits and 1 walk over 6.0 innings and has a 2.35 ERA across his last 6 starts. Walker was effective out of the bullpen, but the season as a whole has not been pretty. Through 17 appearances, Walker owns a career-high 6.29 ERA while ranking in the 10th percentile or worse in nearly every advanced metric. Certainly, one of the major concerns has been Walkers’ inability to generate strikeouts, as he is sitting down just 15.7% of the batters he faces. In his last 4 appearances alone, Walker has recorded just 2 strikeouts in 14.0 innings. The Mets just plated 10 runs in back-to-back games, so if Walker is going to allow contact, it might not end great for Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Predictions: Mets ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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