Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 04/27/25

One of the best games on the MLB slate takes us to Chicago for a matchup between the Phillies and Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball. Both of these teams feel like contenders in the National League, and this could end up being a future playoff series preview come October. And even though Saturday’s contest was a higher-scoring affair, I’m of the belief that we’re getting a lower-scoring game on Sunday. For starters, Wrigley Field should feature favorable conditions for both starting pitchers in this matchup, as temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s at first pitch, with around 8 mile per hour winds. It also helps matters that both starting pitchers are due for a bit of positive regression, particularly Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, who has surrendered just 8 runs over his last 22.1 innings pitched following a rocky first outing of the campaign that inflated his ERA. Taillon has plenty of familiarity with this Phillies lineup, and he should start off strong at home on Sunday.

On the other side, the results for Aaron Nola to this point have certainly been underwhelming, as the veteran right-hander holds a 6.43 ERA and has allowed 20 earned runs in 28 innings pitched. However, Nola’s underlying metrics (4.57 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 24.6% strikeout rate per Baseball Savant) now suggest that he’s become a bit undervalued in the market compared to where he’s actually at as a pitcher. With that in mind, even though Nola doesn’t appear to be what he once was, he should still put forth an effective outing against a lineup that he’s had success against, albeit in a fairly small sample size. And while both of these bullpens aren’t performing well of late, each team should have its high leverage relievers available for this contest. All things considered, I’ll back the under at Wrigley Field.

Phillies vs Cubs prediction: Under 8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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