HomeMLBMLB PredictionsNew York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds and World Series Game 1 Picks

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds and World Series Game 1 Picks for Friday, 10/25/24

Updated: 11:52 AM ET Oct 25, 2024

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Yankees

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Dodgers

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MLB

Money Line PickBest Bet

NY Yankees Win(+105)NY Yankees @ LA Dodgers

Reasoning

After more than 6 months of baseball, the World Series comes down to the 2 preseason favorites, the 2 biggest dogs on the block, and we are here for your Yankees vs Dodgers prediction for Game 1. The Dodgers get home-field advantage, so the series will open out west on Friday night. The Yankees are plus-money odds to win the series and plus-money odds to win Game 1, and I am a big fan of both of those bets. The Yankees will send Gerrit Cole to the mound in Game 1, and he will face Jack Flaherty. While I love getting Cole at plus money, that is not my only reason to back the Yankees in Game 1. But my Yankees vs Dodgers pick is the Yankees on the money line.

I am not overly concerned that Flaherty got blasted by the Mets in his last time out. So what, it happens. My bigger concern is that the Yankee lineup is just scary, and with Stanton on a homerun binge, the middle of this order is almost impossible to navigate right now. I also do not think that Dave Roberts can continue to navigate his bullpen the way he has so far in the postseason, and while that is more of a concern for the long haul of the series, I expect it to impact Game 1 also. I think we can expect 5 or 6 strong innings from Cole that he gives the Yankees the early edge, while the bullpen does enough to preserve the win from there. Give me the Bronx Bombers to take the first game of this series.

Yankees vs Dodgers prediction: Yankees ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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Chad Hartsock

Yankees vs Dodgers Pickswise Expert Predictions

MLB

Game Totals Pick

Over 8.5(-105)NY Yankees @ LA Dodgers

Reasoning

As we continue with our Game 1 Yankees vs Dodgers prediction, what should we expect from the game total? The books have opened with a very standard 8.5 line, leaving bettors to decide whether this is an offensive game or a pitchers’ duel. Typically in Game 1, we can expect lower scoring—teams have their ace on the mound and bullpens are fresh and rested, and they are not yet exposed. My favorite betting pick as this series goes on, by the way, is to keep an eye on bullpen usage. The Law of Exposure is very real: the more lineups (especially star hitters) see a specific reliever, the more they will tend to hit them hard. Just take as an example what the Yankees did to Emmanuel Clase in the ALCS, the best closer in baseball. But this is Game 1, so bullpens are not yet exposed. Typically, that would lead us to the under, and if you play it that way, I wouldn’t argue. But for me, I am looking for this game to sneak over the total. Here’s why.

It is very possible that we could get 2 strong starts from 2 excellent pitchers, and then follow that with high-leverage arms from both teams. However, I think it is just as likely that one starter gives up some early runs, leading us to a parade of bullpen arms. Or, any one bullpen arm just doesn’t have it that night, and they give up a crooked number. And as we have seen in the playoffs already, if a team gets down by several runs, they will play the rest of the game with their least important bullpen arms, and if they hit their way back in it, so be it. Both of these offenses are historically good, anchored by generational talents like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. When we are walking guys and hoping to get Mookie Betts or Juan Soto out instead, I would hate to be a pitcher. I usually prefer unders in postseason games, but this series feels like it might be a slugfest every night, and any night that someone gets out to an early lead, these totals could soar. I’ll take my chances with the over in Game 1.

Yankees vs Dodgers prediction: Over 8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chad Hartsock

Show Bio

A teacher and minister by training, a fantasy sports enthusiast and sports bettor by hobby. I live in the Great Smoky Mountains, and I especially love NCAAF, NFL, NCAAB and MLB. For Chad Hartsock media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Walks Pick

S. Ohtani (LAD) - Over 0.5 walks(-125)

Reasoning

For how well Mookie Betts played towards the tail end of the NLCS against the New York Mets, the Yankees are still going to resort to pitching to him rather than Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani was pitched around all series long in the NLCS. He walked in all 6 games a combined 9 times. When the Mets didn’t walk him, Ohtani made them pay for it. He recorded 8 hits, 2 of which were home runs, drove in 6 runs, and crossed home plate 9 times.

Let’s look ahead to this series against the Yankees. Ohtani and his 11.1% walk rate ranked in the 85th percentile in the league. That should mesh well against a Yankees bullpen that walked the 6th-most batters in the American League during the regular season. The Yankees will go to Gerrit Cole for Game 1, which bodes well for Ohtani, as Cole is walking batters at his highest rate since 2018. After Cole, I’m siding with Ohtani against whoever the Yankees go to in the bullpen. He walks at a near 13% rate against right-handed pitching and 8% against left-handed pitching.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Player Hits+Runs+RBIs Pick

T. Hernandez (LAD) - Over 1.5 H+R+RBIs(+100)

Reasoning

Teoscar Hernandez finally arrived to the party in Game 6 of the NLCS. He roped 2 singles, including a 404-foot tank he failed to run out that would’ve been a double. Nonetheless, Hernadez is ready to return to being an integral part of this lineup — especially with Freddie Freeman’s health being a major concern. Hernandez should have ample opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position. During the regular season, he hit .288 with 71 runs batted in — 12th-most in the majors. At even money and hitting behind multiple MVPs, I’ll gladly back Hernandez at this number, where he surpassed the Over in 13 of his last 20 games played at Dodger Stadium.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Model projections coming soon

Top Trends

Game Totals

9 of the Dodgers' last 11 games (82%) have gone Over the total.

Money Line

The Yankees have won 8 of their last 10 games.

Run Line

With a rest advantage over their opponents, the Dodgers have covered the run line in 3 straight games.

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