New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/05/24

Pete Alonso and the New York Mets stunned the Brewers and the city of Milwaukee on Thursday night after a remarkable 3-run home run in the top of the 9th inning off the bat of soon to be free agent, Alonso. The opposite field blast gave way to a 4-2 victory and the Mets’ first NLDS appearance since winning the World Series in 2015. The Mets look to keep their magical season alive as they travel to Citizens Bank Park to take on their division rival in the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies enter this series well-rested having won their first NL East Division title since 2011, granting them 5 days off and a first-round bye from the playoffs. Philadelphia is a serious World Series contender, having won the NL Pennant in 2022 and coming just 1 win shy of reaching the World Series again in 2023 after going up 3 games to 2 before falling to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS. The Phillies currently have the 3rd-best odds to win the World Series at +370 on Fanduel Sportsbook, behind the Yankees (+290) and the Dodgers (+360).

During the regular season, these teams continuously played each other close, with the Phillies holding a slight 7-6 season-series advantage. Phillies’ ace Zach Wheeler will get the nod on Saturday afternoon, while the Mets – in a somewhat surprising move – will hand the ball to Kodai Senga. Senga was New Yorks’ best starting pitcher in 2023, piecing together a 2.98 ERA across 29 starts, but Senga has dealt with numerous injuries this season – limiting him to just 1 Major League start and a handful of rehab starts in the minors. Senga’s lone start for the Mets this season came on July 26 against the Atlanta Braves, and he has pitched in just 1 game since. One would assume that Senga is going to be extremely limited on pitches and likely won’t go more than a few innings, if that. This should give the Phillies a favorable position when considering how depleted the Mets’ bullpen is at the moment.

The Phillies carried the best home record of any team in the MLB this season, finishing 54-27 at Citizens Bank Park. Behind the arm of Zack Wheeler, I project that their home success will continue in Game 1 of the NLDS. Wheeler is coming off another strong season, posting a career-best 2.57 ERA across 32 starts. The former Met has been lights out since the beginning of August, boasting a 1.89 ERA over his final 11 starts, all of which were quality outings. Wheeler has been one of the most reliable October pitchers in recent years, posting a 2.42 ERA in 11 appearances with the Phillies over their past 2 postseason runs. There could be some early rust from the Phillies having not played since last Sunday, but I don’t believe they’ll need the offense to carry them too much in this one. Back Wheeler and the Phillies the cover the run line and secure another win at home in Game 1.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions: Phillies -1.5 (+125) at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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