Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/08/24

Game 2 of the NLDS between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t offer much drama in terms of play but offered plenty of extracurricular activity and heated exchanges. Fernando Tatis Jr. got hit by a pitch (perhaps intentionally), Manny Machado and Jack Flaherty verbally sparred with one another, Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts implied Machado threw a ball into their dugout with the intention of hitting him, and Dodger fans began to toss baseballs and beer cans into the outfield near the direction of Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar, prompting security to intervene for a close to 10-minute delay. Much of that drama took away from the fact that the Padres made easy work of the Dodgers, winning the game 10-2 with Yu Darvish providing 7.0 innings of work for San Diego.

Split at 1 game apiece, the series now shifts to San Diego with Walker Buehler and Michael King taking the mound for their respective clubs. The start for Buehler on Tuesday night will mark his first game action since September 26 in which he tossed 5.0 innings of 1-run ball against the Padres. Buehler’s only other start against the Padres came back on May 18, where the right-hander surrendered 3 earned runs across 3.1 innings in a losing effort. Buehler made just 16 starts this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he has struggled to return to form. Buehler’s 5.38 ERA is the worst mark of his career while his xERA, xBA, chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate all fall in 20th percentile or worse.

Padres’ Game 3 starting pitcher Michael King is coming off a fantastic Wild Card performance against the Atlanta Braves as he recorded 12 strikeouts across 7.0 scoreless innings. King spent his first 5 seasons working out of the bullpen for the New York Yankees before taking on a starting role with the Padres in 2024. The move has paid off for King and the Padres, with King posting a 2.95 ERA over 30 starts and a career-high 173.2 innings pitched. King went through some early season adjustments in the new role, carrying a 5.00 ERA through his first 7 appearances, but quickly turned the page, posting a 2.42 ERA in his 24 remaining starts. The Padres have also beaten the Dodgers in each of the 4 games that King started in during the regular season and King has held the Dodgers scoreless in 14.0 straight innings. With Freddie Freeman not at 100% and Mookie Betts going 2-for-31 in the postseason since 2022, this is a difficult spot for Los Angeles. I’m taking the Padres to go up in the series on Tuesday.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Predictions: Padres ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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