Ryan Hodges

There was a ton of urgency in Colorado’s lineup on Saturday because if they were to have lost Game 4, the Avs would have had to win 3 in a row to take this series. That’d have been a tall task against this talented Stars team, especially with 2 of the final 3 games being played in Dallas. Game 4 was arguably a must-win for the Avalanche, and they completely flipped a switch. If Colorado can dominate, seemingly on command in a high-pressure game, they are a tough fade as this series goes back to Dallas. 

None of this is to say the Stars are not a great team. They absolutely are. But Game 4 showed viewers what they likely already knew in that Dallas does not have a Nathan MacKinnon or a Cale Makar. When those guys are buzzing, which is just about every shift, they bring their teammates up to a higher level. In that situation, every Avalanche player is playing with a speed and urgency that arguably no team in hockey can match. The Avs reminded themselves of that advantage in their dominant Game 4 win. Look for them to play with that same intensity, knowing it can’t be matched, and take a series lead from a Game 5 win on the road.

Just 1 of the 4 games played in this series has eclipsed 6.5 goals. There are no secrets between these teams. Game 5 will be the 8th matchup between these division rivals in the 2024-25 season. At this point, there are really no tricks or surprises either team can utilize over their opponent. The Avalanche and Stars are all too familiar with each other and that familiarity has boded well for lower totals. Game 5 should reinforce those trends. 

To caveat, it is not “easy” to defend against these teams and their players. But it makes it relatively easier to defend against one another when they have faced each other so many times in a fairly short peri0d. The same would not be true were they not used to playing against these opponents. Add in the fact that these games are becoming more and more important, and the play should only tighten up so as to not make a mistake. When teams play less free and more tight, the Under will typically have a good look. Expect a somewhat low-scoring game and for the Under to cash for the 4th time in this series.

Even if this game goes multiple goals under the total, Nathan MacKinnon’s goalscoring and points props have appeal. At +125, he is the favorite in this game to score. It also adds nice value to this Avalanche vs Stars Same Game Parlay as it acts as a contrarian pick to the Under. If there is any player in this game worth taking a chance on, it is MacKinnon. His 116 regular-season points were good for 2nd in the NHL, and to no surprise, he has brought the same stellar play into the postseason. 

In the 4 games played in this series, MacKinnon has scored 4 goals and tallied 5 points. He also leads the Avalanche in both statistical categories. In this series, he leads Colorado in powerplay goals and shots on goal, and his 23:31 of ice time per game is the most among forwards by nearly 2 minutes. MacKinnon is being leaned on heavily and is rewarding his coaches for doing so. MacKinnon’s performance in this series now gives him 52 goals and 119 points in 92 career playoff games, and 4 goals and 8 points in 7 games played against Dallas this year. This is a nice addition to our Avalanche vs Stars Same Game Parlay.