Filip Tomic

Friday’s game between the Knicks and Cavs will feature the 1st and 3rd-best offenses in the NBA, so it’s natural to expect a high-scoring output from both sides, right? Well, I’m not so sure. Both teams will be playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back here, plus the Knicks also played overtime in their home game against the Chicago Bulls. In general, scoring took a big dip in the first full slate following the all-star break with 7 of the 9 games finishing under the total. We saw something similar happen last year as well post-break.

Games between the Knicks and Cavaliers have traditionally been on the more defensive side when it comes to scoring. 9 of the last 10 meetings have gone under with an average of just 201.8 points per game scored. Obviously we don’t expect that type of number here as that’s just too low for today’s NBA standards. However, the first meeting this season resulted in just 214 points scored, which is almost 25 points less than tonight’s line. I think it’s time teams finally start playing some defense as we get closer to the postseason and I believe there is plenty of value with the under.

Karl-Anthony Towns had an interesting game last night against the Chicago Bulls. In the first half, he went 2-for-15 from the field, but that didn’t discourage him as he continued shooting to end the game with a 14-for-30 effort. More importantly, though, he made a pair of triples for the 5th game in a row for New York, so I am optimistic he can continue that streak tonight at Cleveland.

Even though Cleveland has shown improvement in guarding the perimeter, the Cavaliers are nowhere near being an elite team in that department. Opponents are shooting 36.1% against them from downtown this season, which ranks them only 19th in the NBA. KAT has cleared this line in 2 of his last 3 visits to Cleveland, so look for him to try and lure the Cavs bigs outside the paint in this game, as that will allow the likes of Jalen Brunson and others to attack the paint. In his last 3 games, Towns has scored 40, 44 and 32 points, so I’m going to continue rolling with the hot hand here.

Darius Garland’s last 9 games read an average of 23.2 points and 6.3 assists per game, so he is well above the 25.5 combined total we need him to surpass on Friday night. He was able to surpass this line in limited minutes against the Brooklyn Nets last night, scoring 18 points and dishing out 9 assists in just 29 minutes of work.

We’ve seen Garland have some pretty decent outputs in recent games against the Knicks, and most recently he finished with 34 points and 3 assists in the first meeting of the season back in late October. Jalen Brunson isn’t exactly a defender who can hold his ground against a player like Garland, plus Josh Hart might miss yet another game which would open up the door for Garland to be productive here offensively. New York has not been able to figure him out, as he’s averaging 24.3 points and 5.5 assists per game in the last 4 meetings. Don’t be surprised if he goes crazy from the three-point line here as the Knicks are dead last in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 37.9% from the perimeter this season.