Filip Tomic
Pickswise ExpertFilip's Picks
Many people have doubted this remarkable run of the Atlanta Hawks. Following their latest win over the Boston Celtics, I think it’s safe to say that they are indeed for real. Only the Spurs and Thunder have a better record over the past 15 games than the Hawks’ 13-2 SU run. Atlanta has ranked seventh in offense and fifth in defense during this stretch, as well. Wednesday sees them try to deliver a knockout punch to the Orlando Magic, as the 2 teams meet for the fourth time this season with the Hawks leading the series 3-0. Apart from Jock Landale who is questionable, the Hawks are pretty much at full strength.
With just 3 wins in 10 games the Magic’s form has dipped significantly. Moreover, they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back following yesterday’s close win over Phoenix. It was their second win in 3 games, but in between those victories they suffered an embarrassing 52-point loss to Toronto. It was nice to get a win over Phoenix, for sure, but I’m not ready to say all of the issues have been fixed just like that. After all, Orlando did commit 25 turnovers in the win — which makes it even that more impressive that it was able to prevail. Orlando is winless in its last 5 games against East opponents, and it has also covered just 3 times in 9 games against teams from the Southeast Division.
The 3-ball has gone ice cold in the last 2 games for the Magic, with them connecting on just 9 and 10 threes. This team won’t wow you away with its play on the offensive end, and that could prove to be the key against Atlanta. The Hawks are flying high, scoring points for fun. They went over 120 in the last 2 meetings with Orlando; they will also be encouraged by having the rest advantage here. I’ll side with the more proven team.
Hawks vs Magic prediction: Atlanta -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
The San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama are not messing around. They’ve not taken their foot off the gas pedal one bit, even though the number two seed in the West is pretty much wrapped up at this point. Wemby just had a 41 point, 16 rebound and 3 blocks game in just 31 mins as the Spurs won their 9th game in a row. Their Net Rating during this win streak is an impressive +18 points, so it’s no wonder they’re once again double-digit favorites at Chase Center on Wednesday. The interesting part is, they have 2 defeats in 3 meetings with the Warriors this year, however in both those wins Stephen Curry went off for 46 and 49 points. In the lone meeting without him, San Antonio dominated by 13 points.
Everything hinges on Curry’s return for the Warriors, although he is close to coming back, there’s still no definitive date set for that to happen. To say that it’s been a struggle without him would be an understatement – the offensive rating falls off by almost 9 points per 100 possessions when Steph is out. The Warriors do have 3 wins in their last 4 games, but those came against Dallas, Brooklyn and Washington, not exactly competitive teams at this point of the season. They just got blown out by the Denver Nuggets 116-93, failing to cover for the 6th time in 7 games. Judging by their run of 6 games in a row without covering at home, it could be a struggle against San Antonio as well.
This is all about Wemby and him making his MVP case. The Spurs are showing no mercy, they are just the better team overall here and should dominate right from the get go. Golden State is 2 games away from the 9th seed with 7 left to play, they’ll be demoralized after last night’s Trail Blazers win against the Clippers. I’ll go with the safer option here and back San Antonio.
Spurs vs Warriors prediction: Spurs -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
