Washington State Cougars vs Boise State Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/28/24

Boise State had a chance to make a massive College Football Playoff statement in Week 2 when the Broncos held the lead over Oregon in the 4th quarter in Autzen Stadium. However, that lead was short lived as the Ducks returned a kickoff for a touchdown, got a stop and eventually marched down the field en route to the game-winning field goal as time expired. Since that point, a number of Group of 5 teams have fallen by the wayside in the playoff chase, and Boise State has since emerged as the favorite to secure this spot. What the Broncos need to do is win, and they’ll have a great chance to build up their resume with a victory over a 4-0 Washington State team, which would be a real feather in the cap for this Boise program. While I don’t have a pick on the side, I think we’ll see plenty of fireworks in this matchup under the lights on the blue turf.

Boise State’s offense has been humming all season. Led by all-world running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos are a top 10 rushing offense in essentially every meaningful metric, and quarterback Maddox Madsen has this offense sitting inside the top 10 in early downs EPA and at 17th in 3rd down success rate. As for the visitors, Washington State has gotten off to an impressive start, thanks to quarterback John Mateer and some opportunistic plays from its defense. However, the Cougars lost the box score pretty convincingly to Washington, allowed nearly 7 yards per play to San Jose State and benefited massively from turnover luck against Texas Tech. This is still a team that is 87th in defensive success rate and 93rd in early downs EPA on defense, so I’m pumping the brakes just a bit on the Washington State hype for the time being. What the Cougars should do is throw the ball early and often, as the Broncos have notable concerns in the secondary. So while I don’t see Washington State having as much success on the ground as it has in recent games, Mateer should still see plenty of success through the air.

I have little doubt that Boise State is going to come into this game with a cogent plan of attack, and I fully expect the Broncos to execute here. This is a massive game for both programs, and I think we see plenty of points, particularly from this Boise State offense. Let’s take the Over 63.5 as my best bet for this game.

Over 63.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 65.

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