Washington Huskies vs Oregon Ducks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/30/24

I’ve had a pretty good feel for this Oregon team throughout Big Ten play, and I was more than happy to fade them in an awful spot against Wisconsin back on November 16. That trip to Madison marked the eighth straight game without a bye week in conference play for the Ducks, as Oregon had to traverse through multiple time zones for the third time in the span of 6 weeks. What we saw at Camp Randall Stadium was a reflection of 2 months of fatigue (and injuries) finally catching up to the top team in the nation. Despite playing arguably their worst game of the season on offense, the Ducks were still able to get past an upset-minded Wisconsin squad thanks to a tremendous showing from their defense, a unit that continues to rise among the ranks of the nation’s best. Fast forward a couple of weeks, and Oregon still has the inside track to a Big Ten title and the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff. All this team needs to do is keep winning, as style points don’t matter too much given the strength of the Ducks resume at this point. However, this week’s matchup against Washington is one that’s undoubtedly very personal for Dan Lanning, his coaching staff and this group of players.

Lanning doesn’t have many losses in his time as Oregon’s head coach, but he has a trio of losses against Washington over the last 2 seasons, including a pair of brutal 3-point defeats a season ago, the second of which kept the Ducks out of the College Football Playoff. This time around, Oregon finally gets this game at home for the first time in three meetings, and I expect the Ducks to be out for blood against a clearly inferior Washington team that has lost its last 3 road games in Big Ten play by a combined margin of 67 points. Jedd Fisch and his staff deciding between senior Will Rogers and freshman Demond Williams Jr., which gives Oregon’s excellent defense (10th in success rate allowed, 5th in EPA per pass) plenty to prepare for. However, both quarterbacks have struggled mightily away from home this season, much like the rest of the team. On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, averaging over 7 yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 10 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and success rate. And even if Dillon Gabriel is going to be without top target Tez Johnson once again in this game, Jordan James and the Oregon ground game should run wild on this awful Huskies rush defense (99th in rushing success rate allowed, 111th in 3rd and 4th down success rate). We just saw Will Stein’s offense look a bit out of sync for a couple of weeks, but the Ducks were buttoned up and razor sharp coming out of their first bye week of the season, and I’m expecting a similar effort in front of a raucous home crowd at Autzen Stadium this weekend. And if Washington gets behind by any sort of margin, don’t expect the Huskies to be able to throw the ball against this elite Oregon secondary, which could lead to some untimely turnovers and short fields for the Ducks offense. Oregon should suffocate the Huskies’ offense in this game, so I’ll lay the wood with Lanning and company.

Washington vs Oregon prediction: Oregon -17.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 19.

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