Utah Utes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/21/24

There is plenty of injury uncertainty surrounding this game, primarily revolving around the health of Utah quarterback Cam Rising after the senior suffered a hand injury in the Utes’ win over Baylor back in Week 2. After missing last week’s game against Utah State, Rising is expected to play in Saturday’s massive contest in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. However, we still have no real idea of his health, particularly when it comes to pushing the ball downfield in the passing game. What we do know is that this is a spot in which Mike Gundy-coached teams typically rise to the challenge. In fact, since 2016, Gundy is 9-1 as a home underdog, while Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is just 2-5 on the road against Top 25 teams over the last 3 seasons. Historical trends aren’t the only thing you want to look at when wagering on any game, but there is enough precedent here for both coaches and programs that the data must be considered.

Outside of Rising’s health — which is already a major factor in evaluating Utah’s offense against a quality opponent — the Utes have been a fairly middling passing offense anyway this season (76th in passing success rate, 54th in EPA per dropback). Things won’t get easier against an Oklahoma State side that has an above-average pass defense, while also ranking inside the top 15 at limiting their opponents’ scoring opportunities once they cross the Cowboys’ 40-yard line. On offense, the Cowboys have had real trouble getting star running back Ollie Gordon going over their first 3 games. With that said, there should be opportunities for Gordon because of quarterback Alan Bowman’s success in the explosive passing game. Utah has one of the better defensive fronts in this conference, so I doubt Oklahoma State is going to rely on Gordon to generate most of its offense anyway. Instead, the Cowboys should let Bowman get comfortable early in the game by connecting on some short and intermediate throws, before opening it up as the game goes on. Utah State’s offense was projected to be one of the worst in the Mountain West this season and the Aggies just tallied nearly 6 yards per play against this Utes defense, which gives me pause when thinking about how the Utes can consistently stop the Cowboys on Saturday. In a game that could go either way, I already lean toward siding with the healthier offense and take Oklahoma State at home. My confidence only grows given the uncertain history we have with Rising in the past, so let’s take the Cowboys before the line could move.

Utah vs Oklahoma State prediction: Oklahoma State ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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This is a game where I’m expecting both teams to run the ball with moderate success, which should set up opportunities for their respective quarterbacks to use play action effectively and generate a few more explosive plays than you’d typically think for a matchup involving run-first offenses. As I mentioned in the point spread writeup, while Utah’s defense is still a rock-solid unit and plays with a level of physicality that few teams do across the nation, the Utes don’t quite have the same level of talent on the defensive side of the ball to keep quality offenses in the low 20s anymore. Oklahoma State’s offense has been terrific on early downs this season, and I expect the Cowboys to be ahead of the chains on many occasions in this contest. Additionally, Rising undoubtedly gives this Utah offense a massive boost in the passing game against a Cowboys defense that just allowed 648 yards and 7 yards per play against Arkansas in Stillwater a few weeks back. Let’s back a higher-scoring game on Saturday.

Utah vs Oklahoma State prediction: Over 53.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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