USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/21/24

In a much-anticipated contest, the USC Trojans (2-0) will travel to Ann Arbor to play the Michigan Wolverines (2-1) in their first conference game as a member of the Big Ten. The Trojans have covered the spread in both of their games thus far, 1 being a straight up win as an underdog against LSU in Week 1 and the other being a 48-0 win over Utah State in Week 2. Fresh off a Week 3 bye, USC is well-rested and should be more than prepared for Michigan — but it won’t be that easy. The Wolverines are in somewhat of a desperate spot if they want to stay in the playoff race after their home loss to Texas in Week 2 — a game in which Michigan gained just 284 yards and turned the ball over 3 times. Last week the Wolverines out-gained Arkansas State 435-280, but they couldn’t pull away on the scoreboard because Davis Warren threw 3 interceptions — increasing his season total to 6. Following the game, head coach Sherrone Moore publicly announced Alex Orji will start at quarterback moving forward — which many believe is a sign of Michigan’s commitment to the run.

Given its recent success ahead of this season, it’s hard to grasp Michigan being a home underdog twice in 1 season — much less twice in September. Yet here we are. Long term, Michigan’s switch to Orji is probably the best solution for the Wolverines under center. Their offense is built around the run and Orji is essentially a run-first quarterback that you would expect to excel in the system. The issue is that he didn’t win the job in camp, which makes it hard to trust his upside in such a pivotal game. D’Anton Lynn and the upgraded Trojan defensive staff having extra time to prepare for a seemingly 1-dimensional offense screams advantage USC, and is probably what decides whether or not the Trojans cover. They are top 15 in total opportunities allowed, which makes sense given they have played only 2 games. However, they yield just 2.85 points per opposing trip inside the 40-yard line — and that’s with a game against LSU under their belt!

Defensively, the Wolverines have not been as potent as we’re accustomed to seeing. They are 51st in ppa and 120th in explosive rate in non-garbage time through 3 weeks, and no better than average at finishing drives. Under defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale, the Wolverines are blitzing at one of the highest rates in the nation — but I don’t think that’s the best way to attack USC. Per PFF, Miller Moss has an adjusted completion percentage of 90.6% when pressured, which is impressive considering he has the least amount of time to throw out of the qualified quarterbacks. Going a bit further, Moss has been specifically blitzed (pressure by schematic design) on about 39% of his dropbacks, and PFF grades him the 5th-best passer in the country when blitzed with 3 big time throws and just 1 turnover-worthy play. With extra time to prepare, I expect Lincoln Riley to have a solid game plan to counter Michigan’s blitz and pick apart its secondary — which lacks a lock-down asset outside of Will Johnson and grades outside the top 70 in opposing pass ppa, success rate and explosiveness. I tried to find reasons to back Michigan, but I’m not confident in its offense and the defense seems to be exploitable. The Trojans have passed the eye test this year while the Wolverines have not, and I think USC’s bye week may negate some of the advantage of the desperation spot for Michigan. As such, I’m laying it with USC. 

USC vs Michigan prediction: USC -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6. 

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The Wolverines run the ball at a top-25 rate, excluding garbage time, while ranking 108th in plays per game and 131st in seconds per play — and that was before Alex Orji was their quarterback. Orji has never been known to be a passer, so the Wolverines could play even slower and rely more heavily on the run starting this week against USC. When the Trojans have the ball, they operate a bit faster than the Wolverines. However, they aren’t lighting quick, either — ranking in the 50s in plays per game and seconds per play. 

For the Wolverines to have a shot to win this game, they have to manage the clock and play keep-away from the Trojans. Their offense is built to do that, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it will lead to points on the scoreboard. Despite playing 1 more game than USC, Michigan has 1 less trip inside the opposing 40-yard line than the Trojans. When the Wolverines reach the green zone, they will be met by a Trojan defense that is vastly improved from last year given its staff upgrade and yields less than 3 points per opposing scoring opportunity. Without much faith in Michigan’s offense and an expectation that this will be a low-possession game with a running clock, I lean to the under on this Big Ten matinee. 

Michigan vs USC prediction: Under 44.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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