UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 12/06/24

We could be in for one of the best games of the season on Friday, as the UNLV Rebels will head to the blue turf to take on the Boise State Broncos in what is arguably the biggest game in Mountain West Conference history to this point. This is the game of the year in the Group of 5, as both teams would almost certainly be selected as the Group of 5 automatic qualifier into the College Football Playoff if they were able to win this one. While most college football fans are likely familiar with Boise State, this UNLV team has been excellent all season long, including a recent stretch of games where the Rebels have looked absolutely dominant, while Boise State has stumbled a bit through the last month of conference play. Therefore, I expect the Rebels to be the sharp side in this game, but given that Boise State was just laying 4 points in Las Vegas when these teams played 5 weeks ago, I just can’t get there with the Broncos as a 3.5-point favorite at home in what is arguably the biggest game in program history for both sides. 

Instead of targeting the spread, I’ll be taking a look at the total and leaning toward the under in this contest. The first matchup between these teams was extremely even, as Boise State won the yardage battle, but UNLV was better in terms of yards-per-play. There were also some key plays that led to quick scoring drives, including a turnover that led to a Boise State 7-yard touchdown drive late in the game. The Broncos were also 4-for-4 on 4th down, which certainly extended drives and led to points. There was a lot of variance in the first meeting and the game still only finished with 53 total points. With that in mind, the current number of 59 is a bit too inflated when both of these defenses are excellent on early downs (21st and 22nd in early downs EPA respectively) and showed the ability to disrupt the opposing offense in that previous meeting. All-world running back Ashton Jeanty was held to a season-low 3.9 yards per carry in the first meeting, a game where his longest rush was 16 yards. While Jeanty was banged up in that contest, the Rebels still have the blueprint for how to contain the Heisman hopeful and force Maddux Madsen to beat them instead.

As for UNLV’s offense, the Rebels are led by quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who has 26 total touchdowns and has accounted for more than 2,500 yards of offense this season. The Rebels should keep the ball on the ground against a Boise defense that generates pressure and gets after the quarterback better than nearly every other team in the country. This creates a game script that should be conducive to an Under, and it certainly helps matters that both teams could be a bit tight in a game of this magnitude.

UNLV vs Boise State prediction: Under 59 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 58.5.

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