UL Monroe Warhawks vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/21/24

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin. ULM is 2-0 with wins over Jackson State from the FCS, and UAB. They have looked impressive in their 2 games but haven’t played an opponent near the talent level of Texas. They have already surpassed their preseason win total of 1.5 but they have a very tough schedule ahead. Along with their conference games, they have Auburn still on the schedule after this week. That does not include going on the road against the number-one team in the country in this game. ULM has no delusions of winning this game, but the spread is high and they could certainly cover. As I mentioned, Texas has moved into the number one spot in the country after Georgia played a tight contest against Kentucky. The Longhorns have a win over Michigan, which looks good on paper, but still have the meat of their schedule in front of them including Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas A&M. This isn’t even a speed bump for Texas on their path to the College Football Playoff but could be a sleepy start for the Longhorns, leaving the door open for a ULM cover.

Texas has one of the best offenses in the country averaging 46.3 points and 516 yards per game. Last week their starting quarterback, Quinn Ewers went down, but backup quarterback Arch Manning went 9 for 12 with 223 yards and 4 touchdowns. A stellar performance coming off the bench even if it was against UTSA. Ewers is questionable for this game but I am not sure they need him after Manning’s performance last week. Defensively the Longhorns are even better allowing only 6.3 points per game and 245.3 yards per game. ULM averages a respectable 31 points per game and 316 yards per game on offense 10 points per game and 272.5 yards per game defensively. That sounds great but with their only 2 games being against UAB and Jackson State, those numbers might not be so accurate. The Warhawks just do not have the talent to keep up with Texas offensively or stop them defensively, with or without Quinn Ewers. These teams have played twice, once last season where Texas won 52-10 and covered the spread; and once in 2009 where Texas also won 59-20 but did not cover the spread. The interesting numbers from those matchups are that the total was above 60 points both times but in this game, it is currently only 52.5. That is a low total assuming Texas averages 46 points per game and has scored 52 points or more in 2 of their 3 games this year. Texas may sleepwalk this game a little and let ULM score early before closing the door but when they close that door they will do it by scoring points. Take the over in this matchup with one of the best offenses in the country. 

Over 52.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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