UCF Knights vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/05/24

The Central Florida Knights take on the Florida Gators in an in-state contest. UCF is coming off an embarrassing 48-21 loss to Colorado at home last week. It was the Knights’ first loss of the season, but they were -12.5 favorites and lost outright. UCF is 3-1 but their 3 wins are a late fourth quarter 35-34 victory over TCU and 2 wins over FCS teams. This will be arguably one of the best teams they have played, especially talent-wise. Florida is a disappointing 2-2 this season with losses to Miami and Texas A&M and wins over Samford — an FCS school — and Mississippi State. While those wins aren’t impressive, their losses are not as bad as they are made out to be. Miami is an ACC title contender and Texas A&M has 5-star talent across the field. Fans of the Gators are already calling for head coach Billy Napier’s job, but they have an incredibly tough schedule this year and could easily win this game.

UCF was in conversations as a favorite to win the Big 12 before losing to Colorado last week. The Knights now sit at 12-1 to win the conference which is the 5th best odds. Offensively they average 39.5 points and 543.3 yards per game, 20th nationally. Those are some good offensive numbers, but in their only game against an FBS top 65 defense — Colorado — they scored 21 points. Defensively they allow on average 24.8 points and 331.5 yards per game, 78th in the country. In their 2 games against FBS opponents, they allow on average 41 points per game — which would rank 132 of 134 FBS teams. Luckily for UCF, the Gators have similarly bad numbers. Offensively Florida ranks 55th averaging 31.8 points and 424.3 yards per game. Defensively the Gators allow on average 27.3 points per game and 425.5 yards per game. What all these numbers boil down to is that neither team has a very good defense, and both offenses have put up numbers against weak defenses. That is why I like the over in this game. Florida and UCF both have put up 45-plus points in 2 games this year against bad defenses, and both Florida and UCF are pretty much inept on that side of the ball. Florida has hit the over in 10 of its last 12 overall and 3 of its 4 games this season. UCF has hit the over in all 4 of its games.

UCF vs Florida prediction: Over 61.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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