Tulane Green Wave vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/16/24

The Tulane Green Wave (8-2) head back on the road this week when they travel to Annapolis to play the Navy Midshipmen (7-2). If you read my opening line article, you will already know that I really like Tulane in this matchup. The Green Wave have won 7 games in a row since Week 3, covering the spread in 6 of those contests. Furthermore, they have been very good on the road this season, with a 4-1 ATS record in those games. Their lone blemish was a 34-19 loss at Oklahoma when catching 13 points per the closing number. 

An efficient defense and a reliable run game are the catalysts for Tulane’s success this season. The Green Wave are 3rd in defensive PPA and 13th in opposing success rate outside of garbage time since Week 6, and they match-up well with the Midshipmen offense – a unit that is widely-known to be run-heavy in its approach. In the last 6 weeks, Tulane’s defense is 2nd in opposing rush PPA with top 10 marks in rush success rate, stuff rate and opposing line yards. The Green Wave have generated havoc at a top 5 rate in that time, and are top 20 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss on the season as a whole. 

This may be a low-possession game given the mutual desire to run the ball by these coaching staffs. However, Tulane is well-equipped offensively to win this game by margin with the help of its stellar defense. The Green Wave rushing attack will likely benefit from a much softer matchup than the opposing ground game, as Navy is below the national average in advanced rushing metrics like opposing rush PPA and rush success rate while yielding more than 156 rushing yards per game. Navy’s front 7 also struggles to provide any sort of push, as the Midshipmen rank outside the top 95 in front 7 havoc generated and outside the top 100 in stuff rate since Week 6. Makhi Hughes should run right through this defensive front en route to his 6th consecutive game with at least 100 rushing yards, which figures to open up Tulane’s passing game spearheaded by a trio of talented receivers in Mario Williams, Dontae Fleming and Yulkeith Brown. The Midshipmen may have strong numbers against the pass this season, but they have not played against many offenses that can play off a talented rushing attack and torch them over the top like Tulane. Notre Dame and Memphis were the most similar comparisons to Tulane, and both offenses ran wild while quarterbacks Riley Leonard and Seth Henigan did pretty much whatever they wanted. Ride the Green Wave; Tulane covers. 

Tulane vs Navy prediction: Tulane Green Wave -6.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8. 

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