Tulane Green Wave vs Army Black Knights Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 12/06/24

The 2024 American Athletic Conference Championship runs through West Point, New York as the Army Black Knights will host the Tulane Green Wave – who will make their 3rd consecutive AAC Title appearance. Army finished the season with a sterling 10-1 overall record, and its lone loss was out-of-conference in South Bend against Notre Dame. Tulane finished 9-3 with 2 losses to power conference opponents and 1 conference loss, which was at home last week against Memphis. It was the first time in 4 weeks that the Green Wave allowed more than 6 points. 

The total in the AAC Championship is one of the lowest of the weekend for good reason. Tulane and Army are both bottom 5 in pace of play this season with top 10 rush rates outside of garbage time since Week 9. Stopping the run is going to be crucial to win this game, much less cover the spread – and Tulane seems more equipped than Army in that aspect. Despite similar strength of schedules, Tulane’s defense has been much stronger against the run than Army’s this season. The Green Wave are top 20 in opposing PPA per rush and rush success rate allowed this year, as well as top 30 in stuff rate. Meanwhile, Army is outside the top 85 in each of the aforementioned metrics. For what it’s worth, I also trust Tulane’s passing game more than Army’s despite Darian Mensah’s 15 turnover-worthy plays. Mensah is a productive passer with arguably the most talented group of wide receivers in the conference, and Army’s Bryson Daily is not exactly devoid of mistakes despite throwing just 1 interception – as he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate in the AAC outside of Charlotte’s quarterbacks (7.7%). That figures to be an issue against a Tulane defense that is top 35 in havoc generated since Week 9. 

Playing a championship game on the road is not easy, but Tulane has excelled away from home – winning and covering every road game since their loss at Oklahoma in mid-September. The Green Wave have been one of the best teams in the country at finishing drives in recent weeks, and coach Jon Sumrall has been very good at getting his teams back on track after a loss in his short career as a head coach – which provides me with the extra confidence I need to lay points on the road with the Green Wave in the AAC Championship. 

Tulane vs Army prediction: Tulane -4.5 (-112) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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