Texas Longhorns vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/16/24

Following a bye week, the Texas Longhorns (8-1) showcased their dominance in a 49-17 win over Florida. The ‘Horns outgained the Gators 562-329, and were dominant both on the ground and through the air. Jerrick Gibson and Jaydon Blue combined for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 combined carries, while Quinn Ewers threw for 333 yards, 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. With the win, the Longhorns remain tied atop the SEC standings as they head to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4), who come into this game off a much-needed bye. The Razorbacks were demolished by the Ole Miss Rebels on their home field last time out, yielding a season-high 63 points and nearly 700 total yards in the 32-point loss. Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart completed 25 of 31 passes for 515 yards and 6 touchdowns in the game, both season highs for him.

Arkansas coach Sam Pittman is known for his success against the spread as an underdog, but I’m not sure how much that will matter in this matchup. The Razorbacks are putrid against the pass, which is an area that Ewers and the Longhorns can exploit. For reference, Arkansas ranks 130th in opposing pass PPA and success rate outside of garbage time since Week 6, and the Razorbacks are outside the top 75 in pass explosiveness as well. Not only are the Razorbacks soft in their defensive backline, but their front 7 has not generated much havoc in recent weeks. In fact, the Arkansas front 7 is equally as bad at generating havoc as the secondary is against the pass, ranking 130th outside of garbage time since Week 6. 

On the other side of the ball, it sounds like Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green will start this week. He should provide Arkansas’ offense with a spark not only as a passer, but a runner as well. However, Texas has seen a couple mobile quarterbacks this season, which should serve as solid preparation for Green. The Longhorns have a massive defensive advantage in this matchup, as they yield about 15 points and 136 yards less per game than the Razorbacks. Furthermore, Texas is 6th in defensive PPA since early October, while Arkansas is 104th. Catching double-digit points on the spread, this is obviously an attractive spot for a pesky Arkansas team. However, given their poor defensive performances against the best offenses on its schedule, I have a tough time going against a Texas team that leads the country in yards per play margin with a quarterback in Green that ranks only behind Carson Beck in the SEC in turnover-worthy plays. I power rate Texas as a 16.5-point favorite in this matchup, so I’ll lay it with the ‘Horns. 

Texas vs Arkansas prediction: Texas Longhorns -13 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -15. 

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