Texas Longhorns vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 01/01/25

Following their 38-24 win over Clemson in the first round of the College Football Playoff, the Texas Longhorns (12-2) advanced to the quarterfinals to play the Big 12 Champion Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Day. Texas continued its torrid run offensively against Clemson, gaining 494 yards while averaging 8.4 yards per pass and 6.1 yards per rush. Clemson also had a fair amount of success with the ball. The Tigers accumulated greater than 400 yards of offense, mostly through the arm of quarterback Cade Klubnik. On the ground, they averaged just 3.2 yards per carry without Phil Mafah at full strength. Arizona State was idle in the first round, but the Sun Devils were incredibly impressive in the Big 12 title game against Iowa State. They out-gained the Cyclones 467-341, averaging 12.2 yards per pass and 6.9 yards per rush thanks to star running back Cam Skattebo’s 170 yards and 2 touchdowns on 16 carries. 

Texas is the more talented team overall on paper, but I believe the Sun Devils are equipped to keep his game within the number. They play at a methodical pace, relying heavily on their ground game with Skattebo – who is one of the grittiest and most efficient running backs in the country. The Sun Devils finished the season top 30 in rush rate outside of garbage time over the final 5 weeks, and their pace of play ranks 110th nationally against FBS opponents. Their ability to shorten games and limit possessions makes covering a 2-score number in a playoff setting that much more difficult for the Longhorns. Texas’ turnover problems are also worth mentioning here, as the Longhorns are 99th in giveaways per game – averaging 2 per game over their last 3 games. Quinn Ewers is at the center of those woes, as he has 10 interceptions and 17 turnover-worthy plays despite missing 2 games – both of which are bottom 30 nationally among qualified quarterbacks per PFF. For comparison, Arizona State is 3rd nationally in giveaways per game, averaging 0.6 per game against FBS opponents. This pairs nicely with its methodical, run-heavy offense, especially with ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt only having 5 interceptions and 4 turnover-worthy plays. 

A disciplined, run-heavy team getting double-digits in a game of this magnitude already catches my attention, but when factoring in Arizona State’s ability to take care of the ball, it’s hard to ignore the Sun Devils. For what it’s worth, they are 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season. 

Texas vs Arizona State prediction: Arizona State +13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Scoring could be tougher than expected in this matchup, as Texas and Arizona State mutually rank in the top 35 in both scoring and total defense over the course of the entire season. Moreover, the Longhorns and the Sun Devils have been specifically good in scoring situations down the final stretch, sitting top 35 in points per scoring opportunity since Week 9 – allowing fewer than 3.5 points per opposing trip inside the 40-yard line. Explosive plays may be hard to come by as well given the fact that Texas and ASU are top 30 in plays allowed of at least 20 yards. 

As previously mentioned, Arizona State is extremely methodical in its approach. The run-heavy offense ranks 110th nationally in seconds per play and is outside the top 70 in plays per game. I expect a slower-paced game because of this, as I’m not convinced Texas wants to push this into an uptempo game given its turnover woes. With a total currently greater than a somewhat-key number of 51, the under is a good look in this playoff matchup between the Longhorns and the Sun Devils.

Texas vs Arizona State prediction: Under 52.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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