Texas A&M Aggies vs South Carolina Gamecocks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 11/02/24

Despite formerly being in different divisions, Texas A&M and South Carolina are no strangers to playing each other. The Aggies and the Gamecocks have met every season for the last 10 years, and all but 2 of the seasons that Texas A&M has been in the SEC. The Aggies have controlled this series with 9 wins in those 10 contests, but the Gamecocks were victorious the last time these teams met in Columbia in 2022. Following their massive win over LSU last week, the Aggies have won 7 consecutive games with their lone loss being the Week 1 home defeat against Notre Dame. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are well-rested for this matchup after a week off. They rebounded from a disappointing 2-point loss in Alabama with a 35-9 beatdown of the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman prior to their bye, and are seeking a minimum of 2 more wins to earn bowl eligibility. 

The Aggies and the Gamecocks are likely to rely heavily on the ground game in this matchup, especially if quarterback Marcel Reed gets the start for Texas A&M. Reed offers more escapability from the pocket than Conner Weigman, which will be crucial against this vaunted South Carolina pass rush that is 2nd nationally in front 7 havoc generated since the end of September. Reed has also taken much better care of the ball compared to Weigman, with 0 interceptions and 2 turnover-worthy plays compared to 4 and 7 for Weigman, respectively. As a unit, Texas A&M’s offense is 12th nationally in rush rate since Week 5, keeping the ball on the ground on about 60.5% of its non-garbage time plays. However, Weigman was the primary quarterback in all of those games. Reed was the starter in September when Weigman was injured, and the Aggies rushed the ball just over 63.5% of the time in those games. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina similarly has a mobile quarterback and a sound rushing attack. The Gamecocks used to run the ball more, but they have been fairly balanced since Week 5 given their 51.7% rush rate outside of garbage time in that span. Against a fierce pass rush like Texas A&M’s, I expect the Gamecocks to get back to their focus on the run. The Aggies front 7 has a top 12 mark in havoc generated in the last 5 weeks, which is going to be tough for a struggling South Carolina offensive line to mitigate. 

Texas A&M and South Carolina have very strong defenses that excel at limiting scoring. Both units are top 35 in opposing scoring opportunities allowed and points per opportunity since Week 5, as well as top 25 in opposing red zone trips and red zone touchdowns over the course of the entire season. Furthermore, the Aggies and the Gamecocks have a knack for turning their opponents over, with both defensive units averaging at least 1.6 takeaways per game against FBS opponents. Given the expectation that both of these defenses continue to perform at a high level, in addition to the reliance on the ground game for both offenses, I project this matchup between Texas A&M and South Carolina to be low-scoring. Take the under in this SEC showdown under the lights in Columbia.

Texas A&M vs South Carolina prediction: Under 44.5 at the time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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