Tennessee Volunteers vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/21/24

It’s not often that Oklahoma is an underdog at home, especially at over a touchdown. In fact, Oklahoma was last an underdog at home back in 2016 against Ohio State, when J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes beat Baker Mayfield in convincing fashion as short favorites in Norman. You’d have to go back to 1998 to find the last time Oklahoma was a home underdog of 7 points or more, as the Sooners knocked off Texas Tech as 7-point underdogs. Oklahoma has only been an underdog at home 5 times over the past 25+ years, but this week might be the toughest task a Sooners team has had to face in Norman in quite some time.

Tennessee enters this high-profile SEC matchup with all of the momentum, as the Volunteers have demolished opponents by a combined score of 190-13 over the first 3 weeks of the season. Nico Iamaleava is getting as much Heisman Trophy buzz as any other quarterback in the nation, and it appears to be justified, as he has 7 total touchdowns over the first couple of games while barely breaking seeing the field after halftime in 2 of these 3 games. However, Saturday’s game in Norman is going to be the toughest environment the redshirt freshman has played in by far, and the same goes for an Oklahoma defense that is one of the best in the nation. Led by Danny Stutsman patrolling the middle of the field, Oklahoma is a top 20 defense in EPA per rush, EPA per dropback and net points per drive. The Sooners are also elite on early downs and when their opponents cross the 40-yard line. I don’t expect Tennessee’s “ping pong on grass” offense to experience anywhere near the level of success that it’s seen to this point.

On the other side, Oklahoma’s offensive line has been a massive reason why the Sooners were faded in the market a week ago against Tulane. And while the passing offense still left a bit to be desired, Oklahoma ran the ball effectively, particularly when quarterback Jackson Arnold either ran by design, or improvised his way to big plays. That level of improvisation will be key against a Tennessee defensive front that will look to pin its ears back in passing downs. The key for Arnold and this Sooners passing attack (117th in pass success rate, 60th in EPA per dropback) will be getting the ball out quickly and limiting the pressure from James Pearce Jr. and company on the Volunteers defensive line. Once Oklahoma crosses into opposing territory, the Sooners are pretty efficient at finishing drives, and I expect them to be methodical and deliberate in order to keep Josh Heupel’s offense on the sidelines for as long as possible. The hate has gone a bit too far in the market, so I’ll back the Sooners at over a touchdown here.

Tennessee vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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It’s certainly terrifying taking an under and fading this Tennessee offense in a big spot, but I think a game script that sees Oklahoma keeping this game close coincides nicely with the game going under this number. We’ve already seen some sharp action driving this number down a couple of points, and I’m of the opinion that it’ll drop a bit closer to the key number of 55 by the time kickoff rolls around. As I mentioned in the point spread writeup, the Sooners have to understand that their best path to success is methodically moving the ball downfield and keeping this Tennessee offense on the sidelines. Additionally, Brent Venables and his staff are sure to throw some simulated pressures and a variety of new looks at Iamaleava to try and confuse the young quarterback in his first true road start. On the other side, the Vols’ defense has been excellent to this point in the season, and while I’m a bit skeptical of their secondary as we proceed into SEC play, there’s no doubt that the defensive line can generate pressure and create havoc as a result. I think it might take both offenses a bit to get into this game, so let’s take the under at the current number for my Tennessee vs Oklahoma pick.

Tennessee vs Oklahoma prediction: Under 57.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 56.5.

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