Tennessee Volunteers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 10/05/24

Fresh off a bye, the Tennessee Volunteers take their perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record back on the road to Fayetteville, Arkansas to take on the Razorbacks (3-2). Prior to their week off, the Volunteers out-gained the Oklahoma Sooners 345-222. They seemed to be in cruise control for most of the game, keeping the ball on the ground 52 times compared to just 21 passes. Running backs Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop were productive for the ‘Vols, but quarterback Nic Iamaleava fumbled the ball away twice in the first half – which is something to monitor moving forward. Per PFF, Iamaleava has 5 turnover-worthy plays through 4 games, 3 of which are fumbles. Speaking of turnover-worthy plays, Arkansas had a few last week against Texas A&M that ultimately cost the Razorbacks the game. It was their 2nd 3-turnover game of the season, both games they probably should have won.

Tennessee’s success is not just because of its offense. The Volunteers have not trailed at any point this season because of its strong defense in tandem with its offense. The ‘Vols are in the top 5 in most defensive metrics including scoring defense, total defense, defensive PPA, opposing points per scoring opportunity and havoc generated, and that defensive prowess is likely to continue in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks average more than 2 giveaways per game against FBS opponents, which ranks 120th nationally, and they have yet to see a defense as strong as Tennessee’s to this point of the season. Tennessee also has the only top 20 offense on Arkansas’ schedule so far, which will put Arkansas’ top 30 defensive PPA to the test. 

Tennessee being off a bye makes this a difficult spot for Arkansas, especially given the Razorbacks’ disappointing loss last week in Arlington. The ‘Vols appear to be too strong on both sides of the ball for the turnover-prone Razorbacks, so I lean to Tennessee in this primetime SEC matchup. 

Tennessee vs Arkansas prediction: Tennessee Volunteers -13 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

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With at least 25 20-yard plays this season, both Tennessee and Arkansas have been extremely explosive offensively. Not only are the Razorbacks explosive, but they play pretty fast. They are 1st nationally in plays per game and 21st in seconds per play, which should give Tennessee plenty of extra possessions to light up the scoreboard.  The ‘Vols rely on the run at a top 25 rate, but they still play faster than the average college football team. Their reliance on the run is likely skewed by their blowout nature of their first 3 games and their 52 rush attempts at Oklahoma. 

The Volunteers and the Razorbacks have been very good at finishing drives defensively. In fact, they both yield less than 3 points per opposing trip inside their 40-yard line. However, neither defense has seen an offense with as much big play potential as the one they will see on Saturday night. The Volunteers are the only top 20 offense the Razorbacks will have seen to this point, while the Razorbacks are the first FBS opponent that ranks in the top 80 in offensive ppa on Tennessee’s schedule thus far. Additionally, Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green figures to test Teneessee’s secondary more than any of the quarterbacks in the Vols’ first 4 games. Given the expected explosiveness and pace of play of these offenses, I think this total is just a bit too low. Play the over.

Tennessee vs Arkansas prediction: Over 58 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 59.5.

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