South Alabama Jaguars vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 09/19/24

I came into the season with serious optimism around Appalachian State’s offense and some major concerns with South Alabama on the defensive side of the ball, especially with former head coach (and defensive mastermind) Cade Womack taking the defensive coordinator job at Alabama in the offseason. Heading into this Week 4 clash, I feel pretty similarly on both fronts for my South Alabama vs Appalachian State best bet. Despite the fact that South Alabama just demolished a bottom-tier FCS team in Northwestern State, I remain unconvinced that this defense (124th in passing success rate, 128th in EPA per dropback, 98th in early downs EPA and 115th in net points per drive) will be able to slow down anybody this season.

Now, in steps an App State offense that just put up over 500 total yards and averaged 6.1 yards per play against an East Carolina defensive unit that is one of the best in all of the Group of 5. Joey Aquilar and company should have a field day against this Jaguars secondary, and I wouldn’t mind a wager on the Mountaineers to go over their team total of 36.5 either. However, given that I do think the Gio Lopez and this South Alabama offense can contribute to this total on their side of the ball and I still have some concerns with App State’s secondary, I’ll opt for taking the over in this one instead for my South Alabama vs Appalachian State prediction.

South Alabama vs Appalachian State prediction: Over 63.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 64.

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