SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/21/24

During the offseason and back in September, I wrote extensively on Penn State’s mentality as a program and how the future was bright for James Franklin and his team in this new era of college football. In fact, perhaps no team benefited more from the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff than Penn State, a team that has consistently finished inside the top 10 of the polls over the last 8 seasons but never was able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Now, the Nittany Lions not only get a shot at a National Championship this season, they get to start off their quest for a title at home in front of over 100,000 screaming fans in a “White Out” environment. This is undoubtedly a massive chance for Franklin and this Penn State program to put together a strong showing on a national stage, and I fully believe that the Nittany Lions will take full advantage of that opportunity.

It was just a few weeks ago that we saw SMU claw its way back to nearly steal the ACC title from Clemson. And while I’m of the opinion that the Mustangs were probably the better team in that contest, that doesn’t help Rhett Lashlee’s group now, as they’ll have their hands full with a rested and hungry Penn State side in hostile territory. The problem for the Mustangs is that unlike the ACC title game, this game is one that should feature much less chaos and variance, which is typically what underdogs need to pull off an upset on the road in a big game. In fact, one of Penn State’s great strengths is its ability to stay on schedule on offense. Andy Kotelnicki’s unit ranks 2nd nationally in success rate, 5th in Early Downs EPA and 6th in 3rd down success rate. Therefore, even though SMU’s defense has actually become the strength of the team, it’s hard to see the Mustangs shutting down a confident Drew Allar and this Nittany Lions offense. On the other side of the ball, Kevin Jennings and the SMU offense has been very efficient and effective in ACC play, despite getting off to a disappointing start to the nonconference portion of its schedule and needing to figure things out on the fly. With that being said, this is by far the best defense that the Mustangs will have faced to this point, and the likes of Abdul Carter and the Penn State pass rush should give this offensive line fits, especially because SMU’s line has really struggled in pass protection this season.

This is a game that should be close for at least a half, but it’s easy to see things unraveling a bit for SMU on both sides of the ball as the game goes along. Franklin’s teams have done very well over the years in this exact type of situation (favored by 7+ points at home), and I anticipate that we’ll get a similar result here. Penn State should be prepared to win the war of attrition, so let’s back the Nittany Lions to protect their home field and win this game by margin.

SMU vs Penn State prediction: Penn State -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5

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While there are avenues for both sides to cover the spread in this game, the total is probably one of my favorite bets on the entire Saturday card. Much like I mentioned in my Indiana vs Notre Dame writeup regarding the conditions in South Bend, Indiana this weekend, the weather in central Pennsylvania is certainly not going to be conducive to a high-scoring affair. As of now, temperatures are expected to be in the mid-20s on Saturday, with wind gusts between 10-15 miles per hour and a chance of some light snow showers as well. That forecast indicates that we should be getting a game script that features a heavy dose of running on early downs from both sides, which should be a particular point of emphasis from the Penn State team (6th in EPA per rush, 12th in rushing success rate). After all, the Nittany Lions are likely going to prioritize establishing their dominance at the line of scrimmage, especially on defense, where they are a top-10 unit against the run this season. That is an ideal script for this under getting home, especially if the Nittany Lions end up maintaining a lead into the second half, where they’ll likely just try to run the ball, chew up as much clock as possible and grind out a comfortable victory.

There’s also something to be said for the fact that this is an unfamiliar situation for both teams, being that it is the first playoff game either side will be competing in. While Penn State has played in big games over the last few seasons, the Nittany Lions weren’t necessarily expected to win those games, even if they were at Beaver Stadium. On the other hand, SMU certainly wasn’t expected to be here at the start of the season, and there’s no telling how Rhett Lashlee’s team will handle a game of this magnitude. Quick-scoring drives are unlikely to be had on Saturday, so let’s back the under in what should be a lower-scoring affair than what this total is projecting.

SMU vs Penn State prediction: Under 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.

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