Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/30/24

Michigan State’s bowl season hopes will be on the line when the Spartans (5-6) host the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers (6-5) on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. Despite being outgained, the Spartans were victorious last week against Purdue thanks to playing turnover-free football as well as excellent run defense. Rutgers, on the other hand, was not as fortunate. The Knights lost at home to Illinois on a 40-yard touchdown pass with just 4 seconds left. 

This game could turn into an ugly weather game, as Saturday is forecasted to be cold and windy with a chance of snow throughout the day. In those conditions, it’s best to target the team with the better ground game, which is Michigan State on both sides of the ball in this matchup. The Spartans are a top 70 team in PPA per rush, rushing success rate and line yards outside of garbage time since Week 8, while the Knights are 99th, 72nd and 101st, respectively, against a strength of schedule outside the top 65 per ESPN. For reference, Michigan State’s strength of schedule ranks 13th. On the defensive side, the Spartans completely outshine the Scarlet Knights against the run. Michigan State is top 30 in stuff rate, opposing line yards, opposing PPA per rush and rush success rate since the middle of October, while Rutgers ranks 90th or worse in all of those metrics. Given their advantages on the ground, I like the Spartans to benefit from being at home in what could be a snow game in East Lansing and earn bowl eligibility.

Rutgers vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State Spartans -2 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.5. 

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