Pittsburgh Panthers vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 11/02/24

Don’t look now, but one of the more consequential games this weekend in terms of College Football Playoff implications takes place in the ACC between the surprisingly undefeated Pittsburgh Panthers and SMU Mustangs. Both teams control their own destiny in the ACC, which also gives them a path to the playoff in what has become a wide open year. With that said, each team is pretty fortunate to be in its current position, especially Pittsburgh given how the last few games have gone for the Panthers.

Three weeks ago, Pat Narduzzi’s squad was outgained by California in what ended up being an unconvincing 17-15 victory at home in a great spot. Things only got more perplexing out of the bye week, as the Panthers were outgained by over 100 yards and managed just two conversions on 3rd down all game against Syracuse. Despite all of that, Pittsburgh beat the Orange by a score of 41-13 thanks to 5(!) interceptions from Kyle McCord, with 3 of them being returned for touchdowns in what ended up being one of the stranger box scores of the Week 9 slate. On the other end of the spectrum, SMU was able to survive 6 turnovers of its own and still found a way to beat Duke despite that minus-six turnover differential. The Mustangs have been rolling since an early season loss to BYU, but this offense suffered a major blow prior to last week’s game with the news that star tight end RJ Maryland will miss the remainder of the season. You could see impact of the loss in that game, as Kevin Jennings and the rest of the offense looked out of sorts and searching for answers. The good news for SMU is that its defense has been stout, sitting at 10th in success rate allowed, 5th in EPA per rush and 4th in Early Downs EPA. The Mustangs should be able to get some stops against a Pitt offense that is a little banged up heading into this one. Pittsburgh’s defense has been rock solid on early downs (6th) and it remains an excellent unit against the rush, so I don’t see SMU’s talented backfield running wild here.

Given the explosiveness of these offenses from a season-long perspective, I understand why the total in this game is approaching 60. However, I just can’t get to this number given the profiles of both teams at the moment. Let’s go with the under at the current number in this pivotal ACC clash.

Pitt vs SMU prediction: Under 59 available at time of publishing. Playable to 58.5

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