Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 12/07/24

In what could be the best game of the weekend, the Oregon Ducks will take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game on Saturday from Lucas Oil Stadium. I’ve had a really good feel for both of these teams throughout Big Ten play, and both sides do have certain matchup advantages over the opponent in this game. With that said, I projected this game closer to 4.5, so I do see some value with the Ducks now that we’re starting to see some cheaper prices on Oregon -3 in the market. Much has been made of James Franklin’s struggles against elite competition during his tenure at Penn State, and we saw the Nittany Lions once again falter in a good spot against Ohio State as short underdogs back in November. Penn State hasn’t won a game outright as an underdog since September of 2021 against Wisconsin, having dropped 9 straight since that win. Against top-5 opponents in his coaching career, Franklin is 1-16 straight up and 5-12 against the number. And while I do think that this Penn State roster and coaching staff make up the strongest team this program has had in years, this is still the best opponent they will have faced all season, and it’s in a high-pressure spot to boot.

Oregon used the bye week to get healthy after 8 straight Big Ten games, and a 49-point outburst against Washington at home was just what the doctor ordered a week ago. The Ducks offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, averaging over 7 yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 5 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and success rate this season. Dillon Gabriel has consistently played his best football in the biggest moments, and it’s clear that having a veteran leader at the quarterback position is a difference maker for this unit. Penn State’s defense certainly presents a unique challenge for Gabriel and the Ducks offense, but offensive coordinator Will Stein should have plenty of tricks up his sleeve after keeping things purposefully vanilla over the past month or so. It certainly helps matters that the Oregon offensive line is the best unit that Abdul Carter and the Nittany Lions defensive front will have faced to this point. Additionally, the return of top wide receiver Tez Johnson is massive for this offense, as the Ducks averaged over 3 points per drive with Johnson in the lineup over the first 9 games this season. Without his top target on the field against Maryland and Wisconsin, Gabriel and the Oregon offense only averaged 2.09 points per drive, with an explosive pass plate rate of just 9.2% (compared to 19.2% with Johnson in the lineup).

As for Penn State, Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been rolling since a loss to Ohio State earlier this month, as the Nittany Lions continue to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate (College Football Insiders). However, the Oregon defense is excellent on early downs and ranks inside the top 5 in EPA per dropback and passing success rate allowed, so this will be a stern test for Drew Allar and the much maligned Penn State receiving corps. The Ducks are also 10th in net points per drive on defense, so we can expect a couple of Penn State drives to stall around the red zone in this one. Additionally, Oregon’s defense ranks 5th in pressure rate on the season, and what’s even more impressive is that the Ducks are able to get after the quarterback without blitzing. In fact, Lanning’s defense is ranked 8th in the nation in pressure to blitz rate, which should help the Ducks consistently devote more attention to slowing down all-world tight end Tyler Warren while the likes of Matayo Uiagalelei, Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch get after the quarterback. With the dynamic duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen at running back, the Nittany Lions should be able to have success on the ground in this game against a very solid (but not elite) Ducks run defense. With that said, as long as Oregon can get off the field on pivotal 3rd downs (10th in 3rd and 4th down success rate), I feel pretty good about the Ducks defense to win when it matters most. After all, this unit won the game against Ohio State back in October, and they’ll step up once again on the big stage to claim a Big Ten Championship.

Penn State vs Oregon prediction: Oregon -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5 (-105). 

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