Penn State Nittany Lions vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/23/24

This line was as low as +10 on the lookahead but jumped out to nearly two touchdowns at the open earlier this week. Even though it’s ticked down a bit, I still think we’re getting a few points of value with the underdog in this Big Ten matchup. Over the last few weeks, I’ve repeatedly highlighted that the teams that are inside the top half of the College Football Playoff rankings don’t need to do anything other than win, and the rest will sort itself out. For a team like Penn State, style points don’t matter in its remaining games. And as we just saw with Texas against Arkansas and Oregon against Wisconsin a week ago, winning on the road in November is anything but easy for even the top teams in the sport. Add in the fact that Minnesota has had success historically at home against Penn State — including wins in each of the last 2 meetings in Minneapolis — and there are a ton of signs pointing to this game being the last truly difficult hurdle for James Franklin’s team to clear before the postseason.

The Gophers were a team that I was very happy to back against Maryland and Illinois, and are now a bit undervalued in the market following a disappointing loss at Rutgers. PJ Fleck quietly has a pretty solid offense on his hands (top 40 in success rate, 17th in 3rd/4th down success rate), led by a quarterback in Max Brosmer who has 18 total touchdowns to just 4 interceptions on the season. It’s going to be difficult for the Gophers offense to generate consistent success against a Penn State defense that is one of the better units in the nation. However, Minnesota is coming off a bye and should have a few tricks up its sleeve when it comes to 3rd down calls and some new wrinkles to keep the Nittany Lions defense on their toes. As for Penn State, Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been rolling since the loss to Ohio State, as the Nittany Lions continue to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate (College Football Insiders). However, Minnesota’s defense is excellent on early downs and ranks inside the top 10 in EPA per dropback, so this will be a stern test for Drew Allar and a much maligned Penn State receiving corps. The Gophers are also 22nd in net points per drive on defense, so we can expect a couple of Penn State drives to stall around the red zone in this one. Touchdowns turning into field goals is key when backing any underdog, so as long as Minnesota can get off the field on 3rd down, I feel pretty good about the Gophers chances to put a real scare into the Nittany Lions on Saturday.

Penn State vs Minnesota prediction: Minnesota +12.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5

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