Oregon Ducks vs Wisconsin Badgers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/16/24

It’s been no secret that the Oregon Ducks have the inside track to a Big Ten title and the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff in roughly a month’s time. All Oregon needs to do is keep winning, as style points don’t matter too much given the strength of the Ducks resume at this point. However, this week’s matchup against Wisconsin does present a bit of a challenge for Dan Lanning’s group. For starters, it’s not an ideal spot for the Ducks. In fact, this game marks the eighth straight game without a bye week for Oregon. This will also be a difficult game in terms of travel for Oregon, as the Ducks are migrating through multiple time zones for the third time over the past 6 weeks. Therefore, while it’s hard to see one of the most complete teams in the nation at the moment losing outright in this spot, there is evidence to suggest that Wisconsin can keep this one within this number at home.

Oregon’s offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, averaging over 7 yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 10 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass, success rate and 3rd and 4th down success rate. However, Dillon Gabriel is going to be without his top target in Tez Johnson once again in this game, and running back Jordan James also appeared to be banged up a week ago. We just saw Will Stein’s offense look a bit out of sync for stretches of last week’s matchup against Maryland, and I’d expect the game plan to be pretty vanilla on Saturday, so as to not show much on tape with the Big Ten title game drawing closer. Wisconsin’s defense has been strong defending the pass this season, so Oregon should consistently keep the ball on the ground in this one, which actually aides the preferred Wisconsin game script because it limits the chances for a Ducks explosive play in the passing game. And while the Badgers struggle to throw the ball downfield, they should be able to run the ball with fairly solid success (22nd in rushing success rate nationally) in this game. Lastly, the Ducks have also made a bit of a habit of take their foot off the gas in the second halves of games against inferior competition, which has allowed some of those teams to cover the spread with scoring drives in the 4th quarter once the game is out of reach. That could be the case on Saturday once again, as Oregon has no real incentive to win by a significant margin in a tough spot.

Oregon vs Wisconsin prediction: Wisconsin +14.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 14.

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