Ole Miss Rebels vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/23/24

The Ole Miss Rebels’ (8-2) playoff hopes remain intact following their Week 11 win against the Georgia Bulldogs. After a week off, they hit the road to play the Florida Gators (5-5) at the Swamp in Gainesville at noon ET on Saturday. The Gators were also victorious in their last outing, defeating LSU last week at home 27-16. There is an argument that Florida was a bit fortunate in that game, as the Gators were outgained, converted just 3 of 9 third downs, and possessed the ball for less than 19 game minutes compared to LSU’s nearly 42 minutes of possession. However, the Gators did not turn the ball over and were able to generate 6.6 yards per carry against the LSU defense. 

The Gators are unlikely to find the same success in terms of offensive explosiveness this week against Ole Miss. For reference, the Rebels are top 40 in preventing explosive plays outside of garbage time since Week 7, while LSU’s defense ranks 128th in that metric. In fact, Ole Miss has one of the best defenses in the country, which does not bode well for Florida based on their results against defenses at or near the same level as Ole Miss. This will be the 5th opponent Florida has played that ranks in the top 50 in defensive PPA, success rate and points per opportunity allowed outside of garbage time on the season as a whole, and the Gators have failed to surpass 20 points against the 4 prior opponents. Ole Miss has not seen much of a drop-off in defensive production against SEC opponents either, as the Rebels are top 20 in PPA since Week 7 with top 50 marks in opposing explosiveness and points per opportunity. Furthermore, the Rebels lead the country in front 7 havoc generated since Week 7, which will likely disrupt Florida’s offensive rhythm given the fact that the Gators offensive line is outside the top 100 in front 7 havoc allowed in that time. 

Ole Miss has a similar profile to Texas in that the Rebels average more than 37 points per game with a top 5 mark in yards-per-play margin and a top 25 mark in turnover margin. That being said, the Rebels offense has been more efficient on a down-to-down basis than Texas, which leads me to believe that Ole Miss can replicate Texas’ success against this Florida defense – especially with an extra week to prepare. While double-digit SEC underdogs have printed money against the spread this season, I don’t think the Gators have enough on either side of the ball to keep this game close. I power rate Ole Miss as a 12-point favorite in this game, so I will lay it with the ‘Rebs – who are 3-1 ATS as road favorites of more than a touchdown.

Ole Miss vs Florida prediction: Ole Miss Rebels -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11.5. 

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