Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/28/24

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) and the Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) both lost their conference openers last week due to head-scratching performances. The Cowboys were out-gained 456-285 at home against Utah Utes and their backup quarterback, and they only gained 48 rushing yards on 15 attempts against the Utah front. The time of possession battle was also heavily in favor of Utah, who had the ball for more than 42 of the 60 minutes in the game despite committing 3 turnovers. Unlike the Cowboys, the Wildcats out-gained BYU last week 367-241 in addition to running 24 more plays than the Cougars. However, the Wildcats committed 3 turnovers and failed to find any success through the air. Avery Johnson completed just 15 of his 28 passes for 130 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and the Wildcats were penalized 8 times compared to BYU’s 2. 

It’s no secret that Kansas State wants to run the ball as often as it can with its dynamic quarterback and running backs. Even in a 29-point loss to BYU, the Wildcats ran the ball 14 more times than they passed, accumulating nearly 230 yards total with 5.3 yards per carry and 8 explosive runs. That type of production on the ground should be advantageous against Oklahoma State’s defense, especially if the Wildcats get the early lead at home on Saturday. The Cowboys have yielded 180 rushing yards per game coming into this contest, and are outside the top 70 in stuff rate, opposing rush ppa and line yards (excluding garbage time). They also struggle to contain big plays on the ground, ranking 110th nationally in opposing rush explosiveness in non-garbage time as well as 124th in explosive runs allowed. 

When the Cowboys have the ball, they were expected to rely heavily on Ollie Gordon. However, Gordon and the Oklahoma State rushing attack has struggled thus far. In fact, Gordon carries the ball at a top 10 rate, yet averages just 3.3 yards per carry and is 70th nationally in total rushing yards among qualified running backs. Part of the struggle can be attributed to the offensive line, which is 75th in stuff rate allowed, 102nd in line yards and 111th in PFF’s run-block grade – forcing Oklahoma State into being more of a pass-heavy offense than it probably wants to be. With added pressure, Cowboy quarterback Alan Bowman has been solid from a statistical perspective, but his 2 worst games were against the 2 power conference opponents he played – and he was even temporarily benched last week against Utah. Against a Kansas State defense that is top 35 in rush ppa, rush success rate, stuff rate and line yards playing at home off a loss, I find it tough to trust Oklahoma State’s offense given its inefficiencies on the ground to this point. For what it’s worth, the home team has covered in this matchup 5 out of the last 6 meetings, while Coach Gundy is 1-5 ATS in his last 6 appearances as a road underdog.

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State prediction: Kansas State Wildcats -4.5 (-110) available at Fanatics at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.  

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The total for Oklahoma State vs Kansas State opened around 54 or 54.5 before being bet up and over the key number of 55 to 55.5. This indicates a strong position on the over in this game, but I’m not entirely sure I agree with the early line move. Kansas State is going to emphasize ball control and continue to make its ground game the focal point of its offense. The Wildcats don’t play particularly fast either, ranking outside the top 75 in plays per game and seconds per play against FBS opponents. Oklahoma State plays a bit faster, but as I mentioned in the spread preview, its rushing attack has been unreliable of late due in large part to poor offensive line play – and I’m not confident in the Cowboys’ ability to sustain drives with an unreliable ground game against Kansas State in Manhattan.

Another factor that makes me lean to the under is the success these defenses have had finishing drives in non-garbage time. Oklahoma State and Kansas State are top 35 nationally in opposing points per scoring opportunity, and both defenses yield an average of 3 points or fewer every time their opponents enter the green zone. Finally, both teams enter this contest off a conference loss in what is expected to be a chaotic Big 12, so I expect both coaches to play somewhat cautiously given the turnover issues each offense has faced in recent weeks. All things considered, I like the under at the current number. 

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State prediction: Under 55.5 (-110) at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to 55.