Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Cotton Bowl Picks for Tomorrow, 01/10/25

The College Football Playoff has produced a couple of surprising results to this point, and the 2 teams behind those results are playing each other in the semifinal round, as the Ohio State Buckeyes are set to take on the Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl. The winner will almost certainly be favored in the National Championship game, and it’s hard to look at this Ohio State team and go against the now-common opinion that the Buckeyes are going to take home the sport’s top prize. Like many other analysts around college football heading into the playoff, I was skeptical of the Buckeyes’ ability to regroup and reset following what was a disastrous loss to Michigan at home. Not only was I wrong, but I was wrong in a major way, as Ryan Day’s team completely demolished Tennessee and routed top-ranked Oregon to advance to this point. It’s as if Ohio State is a completely different team from what we just saw back in November, and the Buckeyes need to be treated as such. On the other side, this is a Texas team that was extremely fortunate to make it past Arizona State, and this will be a massive step up in class for the Longhorns following a pair of victories as double-digit favorites in this tournament.

Ohio State’s change in philosophy on offense was stark in the games played in the playoff, as the Buckeyes placed more of an emphasis on getting their best skill position players in space and pushing the ball downfield more. Chip Kelly has clearly taken the Michigan loss to heart, and with it has come an Ohio State passing attack (1st in EPA per pass, 3rd in passing success rate) that is completely unleashed, with Will Howard performing at his best in the biggest moments and the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka making big plays with the ball in space. The Buckeyes do have concerns on the offensive line, but they’ve been able to work around a few key injuries and hit a couple of home-run plays on the ground in each of the first 2 games, which is really all they need with how elite the passing game is. Given that the Texas defense just struggled to stop Arizona State without its best wide receiver, I can’t expect the Longhorns to suddenly devise an effective plan to slow down Ohio State. And while I do think Texas’ offense is a bit undervalued in the market heading into this game, Quinn Ewers is going to need to show me a lot more before I can trust him and this inconsistent unit to hang with the Buckeyes in what should be a track meet at the Cotton Bowl. It’s the square side, but it’s the only way I can look in this game.

Ohio State vs Texas prediction: Ohio State -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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From a season-long statistical perspective, I’d ordinarily lean to the under in this game. With that said, I can’t back an under in this game with the knowledge that we now have about this Ohio State offense. The Buckeyes were already a top-5 offense in the nation heading into the playoff, but the last 2 games have put some serious distance between them and second place. A combined 83 points against a couple of rock-solid defenses is one thing, but it’s the quick and efficient manner in which Ohio State struck that makes this unit so dangerous. Couple those recent efforts with the fact that Texas’ defense — a top-5 unit in the sport this season — has suddenly looked extremely vulnerable in consecutive weeks against Clemson and Arizona State, and you have a recipe for another 30+ point effort from the Buckeyes on Friday.

On the other side, I do have questions about Texas’ ability to move the ball consistently against a stout Ohio State defense that is playing its best football of the season at the right time. However, the Longhorns’ offense (6th in EPA per play, 10th in quality drives created) should be able to generate at least a couple of explosive plays that lead to points, particularly in a negative game state. Much like how I approached the Rose Bowl, the Over looks to be the right side in this one.

Ohio State vs Texas prediction: Over 53 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.5.

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