Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 11/02/24

This is easily the biggest game of the weekend from a national perspective, and this Penn State team is not only poised to qualify for its first-ever College Football Playoff berth, but would have the inside track to a Big Ten title appearance with a win over its rival on Saturday. These teams are trending in opposite directions heading into this one, especially after a dispiriting performance from Ohio State’s offense against Nebraska in a narrow victory last week. While the injury status of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is in question, the quotes from head coach James Franklin in his Monday press conference lead me to believe that junior will be under center when kickoff rolls around on Saturday. Allar has been excellent in his second season as a starter, averaging 10 yards per attempt and spearheading the Nittany Lions to a top-5 passing offense this season (2nd in passing success rate, 3rd in EPA per pass). Against an Ohio State secondary that we just saw struggle mightily against Oregon a few weeks ago, there should be chances for Penn State to strike for a few explosive plays downfield in this one.

Given that Allar is a true “game-time decision” in this one, there’s also the possibility that we’ll see Beau Pribula, who filled in admirably and led the Nittany Lions to a victory in the second half against Wisconsin, completing 11-of-13 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. Pribula gives this offense an extra dimension with his legs too, which worked extremely well for offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki previously at Kansas with the likes of Jason Bean and Jalon Daniels. A bit of quarterback uncertainty could do some good for Penn State in this spot, especially since it makes this Ohio State defense prepare for a pro-style passing offense, and one more geared toward read option and run-heavy looks. Regardless of who suits up at quarterback, Penn State should be able to generate successful runs and control the clock with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the ground game, as the Nittany Lions are top-20 in rushing success rate and 3rd in Early Downs EPA (College Football Insiders). Ohio State has been excellent against the rush this season, but considering the consistent success that Oregon had on the ground earlier this month, those numbers certainly appear to be boosted by playing weaker competition earlier in the season. 

On the other side of the ball, the Penn State defense is a top-10 unit in the nation and should be able to hold down a Buckeyes rushing attack that has not looked right in recent games. Ohio State has real issues in both run and pass blocking on the offensive line following a couple of key injuries over the last few weeks. That doesn’t bode well against a Nittany Lions defense that should generate consistent pressure on Will Howard and make life difficult for Ohio State’s passing game (19th in passing success rate, 15th in EPA per dropback, 6th in net points per drive). While this matchup has been a repeated stumbling block for Franklin and this program, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to take advantage of the opportunity at hand and keep this game close, if not win outright. I’ve got this much closer to a pick ’em so I can’t pass up a chance to grab over a field goal with Penn State in this spot.

Ohio State vs Penn State prediction: Penn State +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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