HomeCollege FootballCollege Football PredictionsOhio State Buckeyes vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds and Picks

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 01/20/25

Updated: 7:52 AM ET Jan 20, 2025

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13-2

Ohio State

7:30 PM ETYesterday

14-1

Notre Dame

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

Ohio State -8.0(-110)Ohio State @ Notre Dame

Reasoning

After a long and grueling college football season, all roads have finally led to this. The National Championship game will take place on Monday, and it will feature a pair of the premier brands in the sport, as the Ohio State Buckeyes are set to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Both teams had to dig deep and make key plays when it mattered most to get through their semifinal contests, setting up a title game between programs with contrasting styles and attitudes. And while Notre Dame should certainly be commended for the incredible season that it’s had to this point, I have a feeling that this year’s championship game could be very similar to what we’ve seen in recent title games; a lopsided victory for the favorite.

Simply put, this is the furthest thing from a good matchup for Notre Dame on both sides of the ball. The Fighting Irish have gotten to this point thanks to their aggressive and impressive defense, as Al Golden’s unit is ranked 6th in success rate allowed, 1st in passing success rate allowed, 6th in Early Downs EPA and 4th in points per drive allowed. However, this is not a defense that is well-equipped to give Ohio State trouble, as the Irish are 53rd in rushing success rate allowed and lack the personnel on the defensive line to contain the Buckeyes’ ground game. Furthermore, teams that have had success against Ohio State’s elite passing attack have often played a ton of Cover 2, dropping their safeties deep and keeping everything in front of them. That’s completely out of character from what Notre Dame does, as the Irish often sit in Cover 1 and utilize more man coverage than any other team at the FBS level. That aggressive style can work against the likes of Penn State, Georgia and Indiana — all teams that don’t possess an elite wide receiver — but this Ohio State receiver room is a completely different animal. On the other side, Riley Leonard leads a Notre Dame offense that is going to have its hands full against an Ohio State defense that is tops in the nation in EPA per play, points per drive allowed, Early Downs EPA and passing success rate allowed. I’d expect Ohio State to key in on stopping Jeremiyah Love and the Irish ground game, which could put Leonard and this offense in very difficult situations on 3rd down. If the Irish get behind early, things could get ugly for this offense.

The matchup doesn’t favor Notre Dame, and it doesn’t help matters that the Buckeyes have figured it out at the right time. Ohio State’s change in philosophy on offense has been stark in the games played in the playoff thus far, as the Buckeyes have placed more of an emphasis on getting their best skill position players in space and pushing the ball downfield more. Chip Kelly has clearly taken the Michigan loss to heart, and with it has come an Ohio State passing attack (1st in EPA per pass, 3rd in passing success rate) that is completely unleashed, with Will Howard performing at his best in the biggest moments and the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka making big plays with the ball in space. The Buckeyes do have concerns on the offensive line, but they’ve been able to work around a few key injuries and hit a couple of home run plays on the ground in each of the first 2 games, which is really all they need with how elite the passing game is. Given that the Notre Dame defense just struggled to slow down a Penn State offense that did not have a single catch from a wide receiver in that game, I can’t expect the Irish to suddenly devise an effective plan to slow down the best offense in the nation. It’s the square side, but backing the Buckeyes at the current price is the only way I can look in this game.

Ohio State vs Notre Dame prediction: Ohio State -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.5.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Ohio State vs Notre Dame Pickswise Expert Predictions

College Football

Game Totals Pick

Under 46.0(-110)Ohio State @ Notre Dame

Reasoning

I was all over the Under in Notre Dame’s semifinal matchup against Penn State, and despite suffering a pretty tough beat in that contest (especially with only 13 total points scored in the first half), I’m going back to the well with the Under on Monday. Given that each of these coaching staffs have not been in a game of this magnitude, I’d expect a fairly conservative game script in the early going. The Irish have already been a very run-heavy team in the playoffs to this point, and we should be getting a game script that features a heavy dose of handing the ball off on early downs from the underdog here, as Marcus Freeman’s team will likely prioritize not making crucial mistakes and winning the field position battle. Notre Dame’s best shot at keeping this game close revolves around an Under game script, but there’s also a very realistic scenario where this elite Ohio State defense (4th in success rate allowed, 1st in points per drive allowed) completely stifles a banged-up Notre Dame offense, as the injuries up front for the Irish really start to take their toll. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Ohio State raced out to an early double-digit lead and kept Notre Dame at an arm’s length for the majority of the contest, en route to a pretty convincing victory that also just stays Under this total.

Ohio State vs Notre Dame prediction: Under 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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Caleb Wilfinger

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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

Ohio State -8.5

Game Totals

Under 45.5

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

E. Egbuka (OSU) to score a TD

Reasoning

Ohio State Buckeyes -8.5 over Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-110)

This is the furthest thing from a good matchup for Notre Dame on both sides of the ball. The Fighting Irish have gotten to this point thanks to their aggressive and impressive defense, as Al Golden’s unit is ranked 6th in success rate allowed, 1st in passing success rate allowed, 6th in Early Downs EPA and 4th in points per drive allowed. However, this is not a defense that is well-equipped to give Ohio State trouble, as the Irish are 53rd in rushing success rate allowed and lack the personnel on the defensive line to contain the Buckeyes’ ground game.

Furthermore, teams that have had success against Ohio State’s elite passing attack have often played a ton of Cover 2, dropping their safeties deep and keeping everything in front of them. That’s completely out of character from what Notre Dame does, as the Irish often sit in Cover 1 and utilize more man coverage than any other team at the FBS level. That aggressive style can work against the likes of Penn State, Georgia and Indiana — all teams that don’t possess an elite wide receiver — but this Ohio State receiver room is a completely different animal.

On the other side, Riley Leonard leads a Notre Dame offense that is going to have its hands full against an Ohio State defense that is tops in the nation in EPA per play, points per drive allowed, Early Downs EPA and passing success rate allowed. I’d expect Ohio State to key in on stopping Jeremiyah Love and the Irish ground game, which could put Leonard and this offense in very difficult situations on 3rd down. If the Irish get behind early, things could get ugly for this offense.

As for their opponent, Ohio State’s change in philosophy on offense has been stark in the games played in the playoff thus far, as the Buckeyes have placed more of an emphasis on getting their best skill position players in space and pushing the ball downfield more. Chip Kelly has clearly taken the Michigan loss to heart, and with it has come an Ohio State passing attack (1st in EPA per pass, 3rd in passing success rate) that is completely unleashed, with Will Howard performing at his best in the biggest moments.

The Buckeyes do have concerns on the offensive line, but they’ve been able to work around a few key injuries and hit a couple of home run plays on the ground in each of the first 2 games, which is really all they need with how elite the passing game is. Given that the Notre Dame defense just struggled to slow down a Penn State offense that did not have a single catch from a wide receiver in that game, I can’t expect the Irish to suddenly devise an effective plan to slow down the best offense in the nation.

Under 45.5 (-110)

Given that each of these coaching staffs has not been in a game of this magnitude, I’d expect a fairly conservative game script in the early going. The Irish have already been a very run-heavy team in the playoffs to this point, and we should be getting a game script that features a heavy dose of handing the ball off on early downs from the underdog here, as Marcus Freeman’s team will likely prioritize not making crucial mistakes and winning the field position battle.

Notre Dame’s best shot at keeping this game close revolves around an Under game script, but there’s also a very realistic scenario where this elite Ohio State defense (4th in success rate allowed, 1st in points per drive allowed) completely stifles a banged-up Notre Dame offense, as the injuries up front for the Irish really start to take their toll. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Ohio State raced out to an early double-digit lead and kept Notre Dame at an arm’s length for the majority of the contest, en route to a pretty convincing victory that also just stays Under this total.

Emeka Egbuka anytime touchdown scorer (+145)

For the final leg of our Ohio State vs Notre Dame Same Game Parlay, I’m targeting Emeka Egbuka to score a touchdown for the 11th time this season. Fans and pundits around the country are well aware of Jeremiah Smith and his elite talent, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Smith scoring a touchdown ends up being one of the more popular bets in this game. However, I’m much more interested in Egbuka in a matchup against a Notre Dame secondary that will likely be focusing on limiting the explosive plays and mismatches that Smith can create. With that in mind, Smith’s gravity should get Egbuka plenty of looks, and he can also be used in motion and line up in plenty of areas to exploit matchups against the middle of the Notre Dame defense.

The veteran wideout has become a security blanket for his quarterback, and he was targeted numerous times on key downs against the likes of Tennessee, Oregon and Texas in three previous playoff games. While the Notre Dame secondary is a step up in class compared to those units, the Irish are still dealing with injuries and just surrendered some explosive plays to Penn State, a Nittany Lions team that has zero options at wide receiver compared to this Ohio State offense. If Smith ends up being bracketed for most of the game — which is likely what I’d expect to happen — I have complete confidence that Egbuka will be targeted at least half a dozen times in and around the red zone on Monday.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Rushing Yards Pick

W. Howard (OSU) - Over 9.5 rush yds(-110)

Reasoning

Ohio State’s offense has been dominant in recent games, and Will Howard’s prowess in the passing game has certainly been a part of why the Buckeyes are just 60 minutes away from their first championship in 10 years. However, the matchup this week against an elite Notre Dame secondary is one that will put the veteran quarterback to the test.

The Fighting Irish often play a lot of man coverage, but they likely won’t be able to hold up against this elite Ohio State wide receiver room if they stick with employing a ton of Cover 1 on Monday. Instead, I’d expect just a little more zone coverage from Al Golden’s group, with linebackers dropping into coverage and the secondary focused on stopping the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. That’s where Howard’s legs are going to come in, as he’s still a very mobile quarterback and should be able to pick up a couple of first downs on scrambles and/or designed runs in this one. Remember that sacks do count toward a quarterback’s rushing total, but as long as Howard is able to avoid taking multiple sacks on Monday, he should be in a position to cash this ticket.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Receiving Yards O/U Pick

A. Williams (ND) - Over 24.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

The receiving options for Notre Dame have been fairly inconsistent over the majority of the campaign, and one player who has stepped up recently is running back Aneyas Williams. The freshman happens to already be one of the better receiving options on the roster, and he’s already recorded 11 receptions for a combined 81 yards over his last 3 games played heading into this matchup. Given that Ohio State’s excellent defensive front will likely be putting tons of pressure on Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard, we can expect Williams to slip out of the backfield and catch at least a few passes to combat an aggressive defensive front. All things considered, this is my favorite look when targeting the Notre Dame side of things in the National Championship.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

T. Henderson (OSU) to score a TD(+110)

Reasoning

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been a touchdown machine for the Buckeyes this season, but Notre Dame has been very good against opposing wide receivers in its playoff run – and Texas put somewhat of a blueprint on how to defend Smith on film for coach March Freeman and the Irish defense leading into Monday’s matchup. That being said, I shifted my focus to Ohio State’s backfield – which offers a little bit more value than Smith in the touchdown scorer market – and landed on TreVeyon Henderson.

The senior back has scored 5 touchdowns in Ohio State’s playoff run, 4 of them on the ground and 1 of them being the highlight 75-yard catch-and-run against Texas in the semifinal. He is a dynamic runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield, and is a big-play threat almost any time he touches the ball – as shown by his 7.3 yards per carry and 10.5 yards per reception. At better odds than Smith and Quinshon Judkins, I’m in on Henderson to score against a Notre Dame defense that has given up 5 running-back touchdowns in the College Football Playoff.

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Sam Avellone

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

R. Leonard (ND) to score a TD(+150)

Reasoning

FanDuel’s current price on Riley Leonard is almost an instant click. Most of the market is around +120, which I still like, but +150 is just too good to pass up. Leonard has been heavily involved as a runner in Notre Dame’s last 4 games, carrying the ball an average of 13.75 times per game in that span. Furthermore, he has 16 rushing touchdowns this season, which is just 1 shy of Jeremiyah Love’s team-leading 17.

Ohio State hasn’t played many quarterbacks that possess the rushing ability of Leonard. His ability to scramble away from pressure is going to be key against the Buckeye pass rush, as he is top 10 in scrambles and scramble yards according to PFF. I’m sure we’re going to see more of that from Leonard in this game given Notre Dame’s injuries across the offensive line against OSU’s defensive front. As long as Notre Dame can get into scoring range a few times, I like Leonard to be the one to find the end zone for the Irish.

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Sam Avellone

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Ohio State vs Notre Dame National Championship Same Game Parlay

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Notre Dame has an immense 12-2-1 spread record this season - the best in all of college football.

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