Ohio State Buckeyes vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 01/20/25

After a long and grueling college football season, all roads have finally led to this. The National Championship game will take place on Monday, and it will feature a pair of the premier brands in the sport, as the Ohio State Buckeyes are set to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Both teams had to dig deep and make key plays when it mattered most to get through their semifinal contests, setting up a title game between programs with contrasting styles and attitudes. And while Notre Dame should certainly be commended for the incredible season that it’s had to this point, I have a feeling that this year’s championship game could be very similar to what we’ve seen in recent title games; a lopsided victory for the favorite.

Simply put, this is the furthest thing from a good matchup for Notre Dame on both sides of the ball. The Fighting Irish have gotten to this point thanks to their aggressive and impressive defense, as Al Golden’s unit is ranked 6th in success rate allowed, 1st in passing success rate allowed, 6th in Early Downs EPA and 4th in points per drive allowed. However, this is not a defense that is well-equipped to give Ohio State trouble, as the Irish are 53rd in rushing success rate allowed and lack the personnel on the defensive line to contain the Buckeyes’ ground game. Furthermore, teams that have had success against Ohio State’s elite passing attack have often played a ton of Cover 2, dropping their safeties deep and keeping everything in front of them. That’s completely out of character from what Notre Dame does, as the Irish often sit in Cover 1 and utilize more man coverage than any other team at the FBS level. That aggressive style can work against the likes of Penn State, Georgia and Indiana — all teams that don’t possess an elite wide receiver — but this Ohio State receiver room is a completely different animal. On the other side, Riley Leonard leads a Notre Dame offense that is going to have its hands full against an Ohio State defense that is tops in the nation in EPA per play, points per drive allowed, Early Downs EPA and passing success rate allowed. I’d expect Ohio State to key in on stopping Jeremiyah Love and the Irish ground game, which could put Leonard and this offense in very difficult situations on 3rd down. If the Irish get behind early, things could get ugly for this offense.

The matchup doesn’t favor Notre Dame, and it doesn’t help matters that the Buckeyes have figured it out at the right time. Ohio State’s change in philosophy on offense has been stark in the games played in the playoff thus far, as the Buckeyes have placed more of an emphasis on getting their best skill position players in space and pushing the ball downfield more. Chip Kelly has clearly taken the Michigan loss to heart, and with it has come an Ohio State passing attack (1st in EPA per pass, 3rd in passing success rate) that is completely unleashed, with Will Howard performing at his best in the biggest moments and the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka making big plays with the ball in space. The Buckeyes do have concerns on the offensive line, but they’ve been able to work around a few key injuries and hit a couple of home run plays on the ground in each of the first 2 games, which is really all they need with how elite the passing game is. Given that the Notre Dame defense just struggled to slow down a Penn State offense that did not have a single catch from a wide receiver in that game, I can’t expect the Irish to suddenly devise an effective plan to slow down the best offense in the nation. It’s the square side, but backing the Buckeyes at the current price is the only way I can look in this game.

Ohio State vs Notre Dame prediction: Ohio State -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.5.

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I was all over the Under in Notre Dame’s semifinal matchup against Penn State, and despite suffering a pretty tough beat in that contest (especially with only 13 total points scored in the first half), I’m going back to the well with the Under on Monday. Given that each of these coaching staffs have not been in a game of this magnitude, I’d expect a fairly conservative game script in the early going. The Irish have already been a very run-heavy team in the playoffs to this point, and we should be getting a game script that features a heavy dose of handing the ball off on early downs from the underdog here, as Marcus Freeman’s team will likely prioritize not making crucial mistakes and winning the field position battle. Notre Dame’s best shot at keeping this game close revolves around an Under game script, but there’s also a very realistic scenario where this elite Ohio State defense (4th in success rate allowed, 1st in points per drive allowed) completely stifles a banged-up Notre Dame offense, as the injuries up front for the Irish really start to take their toll. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Ohio State raced out to an early double-digit lead and kept Notre Dame at an arm’s length for the majority of the contest, en route to a pretty convincing victory that also just stays Under this total.

Ohio State vs Notre Dame prediction: Under 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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