Ohio Bobcats vs Toledo Rockets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 11/20/24

Wednesday night MACtion in Week 13 of the college football season provides us with a massive matchup between the Ohio Bobcats and the Toledo Rockets. Both teams are 7-3 overall this season, but the Bobcats have a 1-game lead over the Rockets in the conference standings. The Bobcats are also in a 3-way tie atop the MAC standings with Bowling Green and Miami (OH) prior to Miami’s matchup with Northern Illinois on Tuesday night. Ohio comes into this matchup in the midst of a 3-game winning streak, with each of those wins by at least 25 points. Meanwhile, Toledo has won 2 in a row and 3 of its last 4. 

This has the makings of a low-scoring contest. Ohio and Toledo are 2 of the top 5 defenses in the MAC, as the Bobcats yield just 15.2 points per conference game while the Rockets give up 22.5. In fact, the Bobcats and the Rockets are both top 35 nationally in scoring defense on the season as whole, in addition to boasting top 45 marks in defensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 7. It’s not just the defensive metrics that lead me to an Under in this game, though. The current weather forecast in Toledo calls for some nasty weather on Wednesday night, which is typical of these late-season MAC matchups. Rain is forecasted for most of the day, but more importantly, the wind is expected to be between 20 and 30 mph the whole night. I already liked the Under given the magnitude of this matchup in the MAC race and the efficiency of these defenses, but the projected chaotic weather conditions make it even more enticing. 

Ohio vs Toledo prediction: Under 44.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.

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