Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Georgia Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Sugar Bowl Picks for Today, 01/02/25

Despite what the final score reads, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1) beat the Indiana Hoosiers comfortably in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The Irish out-gained the Hoosiers 394-278, converted 7 of 13 first downs, averaged 5.5 yards per carry and led 27-3 before Indiana scored twice in the final few minutes. With the victory, the Irish have won 11 games in a row, but has their schedule prepared them for the Georgia Bulldogs’ (11-2) physicality? As you’ve probably heard, Notre Dame’s strength of schedule ranks 39th according to ESPN. Not bad, but leaves a bit to be desired when compared to Georgia’s #1-rated strength of schedule. 

Georgia’s defense is not near the level of efficiency it was when the Bulldogs won consecutive national titles, but it is still one of the better units in the country – currently sitting top 20 in scoring and top 35 in total defense. The Bulldogs are also top 20 in sacks and top 30 in tackles for loss, so they should be able to put Riley Leonard into uncomfortable situations – especially with Mykel Williams back to full strength. If the Irish can’t get their run game going with Jeremiyah Love, then there’s reason to believe the Bulldog pressure can get home a few times in this one, which isn’t good for the Notre Dame offense. Like most quarterbacks, Leonard’s productivity dips when he faces pressure — completing just 42.5% of passes with 4 turnover-worthy plays and just 2 big-time throws (PFF). His strength is his ability to escape the pocket and create big plays as a runner, but Georgia’s defense is well-versed against those types of quarterbacks having played Cade Klubnik, Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart and Haynes King this season. 

The biggest concern someone may have about Georgia in this game is at the quarterback position. Carson Beck will miss the remainder of the season with a UCL injury, so in steps sophomore backup Gunner Stockton. We don’t know much about Stockton at the collegiate level outside of the second half of the SEC Championship, but he displayed an ability to run – which is not something the Georgia offense had with Beck under center. Playing next to Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier in the backfield, Stockton figures to lead a run-heavy offense against Notre Dame, which may work to Georgia’s advantage considering the Irish are 94th in PPA per rush allowed, 88th in rush success rate allowed, 115th in line yards and 121st in stuff rate outside of garbage time since Week 9. Also working in Georgia’s advantage is a massive special teams edge. Per SP+, Georgia is 7th in special teams while Notre Dame is 104th. Recency bias and hesitancy to trust a backup quarterback may make Notre Dame initially appealing here, but I’m going to side with the program and coaching staff that has been in these situations before and has had extra time to install a game plan for its inexperienced, albeit talented quarterback. 

Notre Dame vs Georgia prediction: Georgia ML (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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The Under is 4-0 since 2022 when Georgia has a rest advantage and 2-0 when Notre Dame has been an underdog since the start of last season, and I like those trends to continue in this one. Given Gunner Stockton’s inexperience and Riley Leonard’s struggles as a passer when under pressure, I expect a run-heavy approach from both of these offenses throughout a majority of the game. Opposing offenses have had some success running against these defenses, but the Irish and the Bulldogs are very good at limiting explosive runs – which is going to be key in keeping this game under the total. For reference, Georgia and Notre Dame are tied at 32nd nationally in runs allowed of at least 10 yards, yielding less than 4 of those types of runs per game. They also excel at keeping opponents out of the end zone when in scoring range, allowing fewer than 3.5 points per scoring opportunity and giving up a touchdown on less than 55% of red zone trips. As far as the total goes, it’s Under or pass for me.

Notre Dame vs Georgia prediction: Under 45.5 (-114) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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