Northwestern Wildcats vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/23/24

The Northwestern Wildcats (4-6) and the Michigan Wolverines (5-5) will meet for the first time since 2021 on Saturday in Ann Arbor. The Wildcats enter this matchup following a 31-7 loss to Ohio State at Wrigley Field in Chicago, dropping them to 2-5 in conference – good for 16th in the Big Ten. For reference, their 2 conference wins were against Maryland and Purdue, the only 2 teams below them in the Big Ten standings. Michigan is off a bye, and while the Wolverines are 3-4 in the conference after taking home a national title last year, they can still somewhat salvage their season with a victory here to earn bowl eligibility before next week’s rivalry game at Ohio State. 

Michigan has obviously not performed to expectations this season, but I still consider the Wolverines to be in a much different class than Northwestern. The Wildcats allowed teams like Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana to run all over them, and Michigan is capable of replicating that success on the ground with its running back duo of Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards – who run behind an offensive line that is top 15 in stuff rate allowed outside of garbage time since Week 7. For reference, the Wildcats are outside the top 50 in stuff rate, opposing line yards and opposing rush success rate in that time. On the other side of the ball, Northwestern’s offense ranks 114th in PPA outside of garbage time since the middle of October, and the Wildcats have failed to surpass 14 points in all but 1 of their 6 games against teams currently in the top 40 in total defense. It is Michigan or pass on this Big Ten matchup, as I power rate the Wolverines as a 14-point favorite despite their struggles.

Northwestern vs Michigan prediction: Michigan Wolverines -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11.  

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