Northern Illinois Huskies vs Western Michigan Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 11/06/24

MACtion continues on Wednesday, November 5th when the Northern Illinois Huskies travel to Kalamazoo, Michigan to play the Western Michigan Broncos. The Huskies are 4-4 SU, but they have sustained 2 losses in as many games leading into this one. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 5-3 SU and in the midst of a 4-game winning streak. Western Michigan is a perfect 3-0 SU at home, but they are 0-3 as an underdog. Northern Illinois is just 1-3 SU as a favorite, so this will be an interesting test to see if either team can break those losing trends.

While impressive, Western Michigan’s winning streak may be a little noisy. The Broncos’ 4 conference games have all been against defenses that yield at least 29 points per game against MAC opponents and dwell in the bottom half of the league. Northern Illinois will present a different test for the Broncos, as the Huskies have the best defense in the conference by the numbers – yielding just 17 points per game. However, there might be noise in these results, too. NIU lost 23-20 at Buffalo and 25-23 at Ball State, both teams with offenses in the top 5 of the MAC in scoring and defenses in the bottom 5 in opposing scoring – just like WMU. For reference, NIU starting quarterback Ethan Hampton was healthy for both of those games. 

Former Alabama head coach Nick Saban popularly stated that good defenses don’t single-handedly beat good offenses in today’s era of college football, and that line of thinking mirrors my thoughts for this game. While NIU boasts an incredible MAC defense, this unit is not impenetrable by any means. The Broncos offense figures to be the best unit it this game, ranking 14th in PPA and 10th in total scoring opportunities since Week 6. When they cross the opposing 40-yard line outside of garbage time, they average 4.8 points, and they score efficiently in the red zone as well. Furthermore, the Broncos have a massive advantage in the turnover margin in this matchup, ranking 7th nationally in that metric since Week 6 while NIU sits 118th. WMU quarterback Hayden Wolff has been the better quarterback this season compared to Hampton, as he carries a 69% completion percentage with 15 touchdowns, 9 big-time throws and just 3 turnover-worthy plays. Hampton, on the other hand, completes less than 58% of his passes with 9 touchdowns, just 5 big-time throws and 11 turnover-worthy plays. Give me the better offense with the better quarterback and superior offensive line, per PFF’s grading system, catching points at home.

Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan prediction: Western Michigan +2.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

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