Northern Illinois Huskies vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/19/24

The Miami (OH) RedHawks have won 5 in a row and are squarely in the MAC Championship race despite losing their opening conference game to Toledo. With just 2 games remaining, the loss to the Rockets is the only blemish on the RedHawks’ MAC resume as they sit tied atop the conference standings with Ohio and Bowling Green. Northern Illinois has the strongest win when comparing resumes, but the Huskies have lost a few times in conference play since beating Notre Dame in South Bend. Defeated by Buffalo, Toledo and Ball State, the Huskies are not in contention for the MAC title. 

Northern Illinois and Miami have 2 of the best defenses in the MAC, but I like what the RedHawks offer as an all-around package in this game more than the Huskies. The RedHawks and the Huskies are both top 25 nationally in defensive PPA outside of garbage time since Week 7, yielding fewer than 2.6 points per scoring opportunity in that time. However, Miami has a bigger advantage on the offensive side of the ball. Not only are the RedHawks better in yards per play margin and turnover margin, but they are top 20 in offensive PPA since the middle of October and score more than 4.2 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line. For comparison, the Huskies are outside the top 70 in offensive PPA in that time, scoring an average of 3.5 points per scoring opportunity. I power rate Miami as a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup, so I am happy to lay less than a field goal with the home RedHawks against a Northern Illinois team playing on the road for the 4th time in its last 6 outings.

Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH) prediction: Miami (OH) -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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