Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 10/19/24

Following a mutual bye, the Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) travel to Bloomington, Indiana to play the red-hot Indiana Hoosiers (6-0). Nebraska has rattled off 2 consecutive wins since they lost at home to Illinois nearly a month ago, while Indiana has defeated every opponent on its schedule by double digits. Not only do the Hoosiers have an unblemished record, but they are 7th nationally in offensive PPA, 9th in yards per play margin and 2nd in total scoring opportunities while averaging 5.15 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line in non-garbage time since Week 3. This matchup will represent a different challenge for Indiana, though. The Cornhuskers have the best defense on the Hoosiers’ schedule to this point, ranking 5th in opposing PPA while yielding only 2 points per scoring opportunity since Week 3. Nebraska also carries a top 35 havoc rate in the last 5 weeks, and could frustrate an Indiana offense that is outside the top 45 in havoc allowed over that time despite a strength of schedule that ranks 112th by ESPN.

Nebraska has been solid offensively since the middle of September with top 35 marks in PPA and total scoring opportunities. However, the Cornhuskers have not been able to capitalize on as many of those trips as they would like – averaging just 3.19 points anytime they crossed their opponents 40-yard line in non-garbage time since Week 3. As good as Indiana has been, its defense has broken when it has bent recently rather than bending and not breaking. The Hoosiers are top 15 in total opportunities allowed since mid-September, but they have given up an average of more than 4.2 points on those quality possessions. They are also 52nd in havoc generated and 73nd in defensive PPA in that time despite an easy schedule, which leads me to believe the Cornhuskers will be able to put some points on the board and keep this game within a score. For what it’s worth, I power rate this game around 4.5 points rather than the 6.5 it is currently listed at – showing 2 points of value on the road underdog. 

Nebraska vs Indiana prediction: Nebraska Cornhuskers +6.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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