NC State Wolfpack vs Clemson Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 09/21/24

The ACC rivalry known as the Textile Bowl takes place in Clemson, South Carolina on Saturday afternoon when the NC State Wolfpack (2-1) visit Memorial Stadium to play the Tigers (2-1). The Wolfpack rebounded from a forgettable effort against Tennessee with a home win over Louisiana Tech last week. However, they fell short of covering the spread by double digits for the 3rd straight time this season, out-gaining the Bulldogs by less than 40 yards despite a 14-minute time of possession advantage and a turnover advantage. To make matters worse, transfer quarterback Grayson McCall was injured in the contest. His status for the Clemson game seems questionable at best. In his potential absence, the Wolfpack turn to freshman CJ Bailey, who completed 13 of 20 passes for 156 yards and an interception while adding 27 yards and a touchdown on the ground against Louisiana Tech. 

The Clemson Tigers were destroyed by Georgia in Week 1, but flipped the script in Week 2 when they clobbered Appalachian State 66-20. The contest was essentially over after 1 quarter, as the Tigers had a 35-0 lead entering the 2nd period. Clemson gained a staggering 712 yards in the contest, rushing for 7.4 yards per carry as a team while Cade Klubnik passed for 378 yards and 5 touchdowns in the first half before sitting the entire second half. Following the offensive outburst, the Tigers had Week 3 off to rest, recover and prepare for their conference opener at home against NC State. 

Given McCall’s injury, oddsmakers inflated this line in favor of Clemson. My power ratings suggest -17 as a fair number for this game at full strength, yet I lean to the Tigers at home at the current number due to the combination of added rest for Clemson and NC State playing a freshman backup quarterback. McCall hasn’t been particularly good this year, but Death Valley isn’t the best place for a freshman quarterback to make his first start. Bailey had 2 turnover-worthy plays in 20 dropbacks against Louisiana Tech, and now has to face a Clemson defense loaded with blue chip recruits on its home field in one of the most difficult stadiums to play in the country. To add insult to injury, the Wolfpack are 110th in yards per play margin against FBS opponents and 78th in offensive PPA this season. It’s going to be tough for the Wolfpack to score in this matchup, especially given the mismatch in the trenches against the Tigers. For reference, the Wolfpack are 127th in havoc allowed through 3 games. Expect a motivated and physical effort from the Tigers in this one. 

Clemson Tigers -20 (-110) at Fanatics at the time of publishing. Playable to -21.

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Both Clemson and NC State play a very slow pace. Against FBS opponents, the Tigers are 94th in plays per game and 85th in seconds per play while the Wolfpack are 116th and 132nd out of 134 teams, respectively. On top of their slow pace, the Wolfpack haven’t been very efficient offensively. They are outside the top 70 in ppa and scoring opportunities excluding garbage time, and they score just 3.1 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line – which ranks 116th nationally. Those inefficiencies are likely to continue on Saturday in freshman quarterback CJ Bailey’s first start, which just so happens to be on the road in a conference opener and trophy-bearing rivalry game. Given the expected slow pace of play and unreliability from NC State’s offense, under is the way to go as it relates to the total.

Under 44.5 (-110) available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to 44.