Missouri Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/05/24

The Texas A&M Aggies “beat” the Arkansas Razorbacks last week to improve to 4-1 SU this season, but I would argue the Razorbacks lost this game more than the Aggies won it – which is not the first time this has happened to Arkansas this season. The Aggies were out-gained by the Razorbacks 379-297 and converted just 4 of their 13 3rd down attempts, but forced 3 Arkansas turnovers and sealed the deal with a go-ahead touchdown in the 4th quarter from which Arkansas did not respond. Meanwhile, Missouri benefitted from being idle last week. Prior to their bye, the Tigers were in a close battle with the Commodores according to the scoreboard. However, the box score shows Missouri out-gained Vanderbilt by nearly 120 yards, averaged more than 5 yards per carry and was penalized just 3 times. 

Texas A&M has a negative yards per play margin in FBS contests (excluding garbage time), while ranking outside the top 65 in offensive PPA and scoring just 3.7 points per trip inside the green zone. With a top 11 rush rate nationally, the Aggies rely heavily on the run – yet they are 60th in rush PPA and 112th in rush explosiveness in non-garbage time. Missouri will counter that with a defense that is top 20 in rush ppa and rush success as well as top 50 in opposing rush explosiveness. The Tigers also have a top 10 stuff rate, generate havoc at a top 25 rate and yield just 2.7 points per scoring opportunity. On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M’s defense is susceptible against the pass and generates havoc at an average rate in non-garbage time situations – so I expect Brady Cook to have time in the pocket behind an offensive line that is top 7 in havoc allowed and top 20 in sacks allowed.

This will be the first road game for Missouri this season, and Kyle Field is a difficult place to play – but Missouri is my preferred side in this matchup. While Missouri’s 2 previous games were a bit head-scratching from a scoreboard perspective, there is reason to believe coach Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers were able to coast through their first 4 games with a vanilla game plan. Off a bye with no true lookahead next week, the Tigers should be ultra-focused on this spot, and we should expect to see Coach ‘Drink and offensive coordinator Kirby Moore open up the playbook for their veteran-laden offense. The Tigers should escape College Station with an outright win, but I’m going to take the points for some extra wiggle room just because this is Missouri’s first road game. For what it’s worth, the Tigers were a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as a regular season underdog last year.

Missouri vs Texas A&M prediction: Missouri Tigers +2.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to pk.

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Missouri runs the 4th-most plays per game against FBS opponents, but that’s not necessarily because the Tigers play fast. It’s because the Tigers lacked explosiveness through their first 4 games and averaged less than 6 yards per play against their FBS opponents. In fact, the Tigers are 76th in seconds per play, as they snap the ball a pedestrian 27 seconds into the play clock on average. Texas A&M plays at an even slower pace, so expect these offenses to take a methodical approach in this game – especially if the Aggies start freshman Marcel Reed at quarterback.

Both of these defenses have been solid, particularly in opposing scoring situations. Missouri allows the 2nd-fewest trips inside its 40-yard line in non-garbage time, holding opponents to just 2.7 points per trip. Texas A&M is top 40 in total scoring opportunities allowed and yields 3.5 points per opportunity. Furthermore, Missouri and Texas A&M both rank in the top 30 in opposing starting field position, meaning both offenses are going to be forced to move the ball more than 70 yards down the field on average in order to find the end zone. I trust the defenses a little bit more than the offenses in this matchup, so I recommend a play on the under in this former Big 12, now-SEC matchup.  

Missouri vs Texas A&M prediction: Under 48.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to 48.

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